Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 06/09, 21:00

Prediction: Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar

Team pages: Independiente Petrolero · Bolivar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Independiente Petrolero1.18

Bolivar2.2

1X2

19% 21% 60%

Independiente Petrolero Draw Bolivar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Petrolero 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWWLW

Bolivar 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Independiente Petrolero 2–4 Bolivar (6 last)

Bolivar1-2Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero1-2Bolivar
Independiente Petrolero0-3Bolivar
Bolivar2-3Independiente Petrolero
Bolivar4-0Independiente Petrolero
Bolivar3-0Independiente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Petrolero 1490 · Bolivar 1588

	Independiente Petrolero	Draw	Bolivar
Our model	19%	22%	59%
Market	19%	20%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1490 vs 1588).
H2H favours Bolivar: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Petrolero	Bolivar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.7	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.50

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.98

2 (-1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:19 +2’	4.75	4.50	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Petrolero 2–0–4 Bolivar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	1-2 HT 1-1	Independiente Petrolero
07/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Independiente Petrolero	1-2 HT 1-1	Bolivar
25/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Independiente Petrolero	0-3 HT 0-1	Bolivar
04/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Bolivar	2-3 HT 1-2	Independiente Petrolero
08/07/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	4-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Petrolero
26/09/24 Bolivia Clausura	Bolivar	3-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	17	11	3	3	44	19	36
2	Always Ready	17	10	6	1	35	12	36
3	The Strongest	17	9	6	2	29	20	33
4	Oriente Petrolero	17	8	3	6	32	23	27
5	Real Potosi	17	6	7	4	22	12	25
6	Independiente Petrolero	17	7	4	6	25	25	25
7	Guabira	17	7	4	6	28	31	25
8	Club Aurora	17	5	9	3	25	24	24
9	Blooming	17	5	8	4	22	18	23
10	Nacional Potosi	17	6	3	8	25	23	21
11	Real Oruro	18	6	3	9	32	43	21
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	18	6	2	10	29	37	20
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	18	5	2	11	18	37	17
14	Real Tomayapo	17	4	4	9	13	32	16
15	GV San Jose	17	2	8	7	19	27	14
16	Universitario De Vinto	18	4	2	12	22	37	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Petrolero	Bolivar
Guabira	3-1 W	4-0 W
The Strongest	2-1 W	1-1 D
Club Aurora	1-1 D	4-2 W
Real Oruro	3-0 W	4-2 W
Oriente Petrolero	1-2 L	2-1 W
Real Potosi	1-2 L	2-1 W
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Petrolero

LLLLWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
17/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
08/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
05/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
01/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	3-0	2	6	W
26/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
16/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	9	L
13/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-2	1	5	L

Bolivar

LDWWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
23/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-2	6	5	W
15/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
09/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	4-2	4	6	W
06/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	13	5	W
02/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
26/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
16/05	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolivar win (60%). Probabilities: Independiente Petrolero 19%, draw 21%, Bolivar 60%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Independiente Petrolero 1.18 · Bolivar 2.2), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.