Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 16/09, 21:00

Prediction: Guabira vs Club Aurora

Team pages: Guabira · Club Aurora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Guabira2.11

Club Aurora1.09

1X2

60% 23% 18%

Guabira Draw Club Aurora

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Guabira 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDLDL

Club Aurora 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLLDDWW

Head-to-head

Guabira 3–3 Club Aurora (6 last)

Club Aurora4-2Guabira
Club Aurora4-0Guabira
Guabira2-1Club Aurora
Club Aurora0-2Guabira
Guabira5-2Club Aurora
Club Aurora2-1Guabira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guabira 1479 · Club Aurora 1551

	Guabira	Draw	Club Aurora
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Aurora (rating 1479 vs 1551).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guabira	Club Aurora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36	1.57	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guabira 3–0–3 Club Aurora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	4-2 HT 0-1	Guabira
28/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Club Aurora	4-0 HT 3-0	Guabira
12/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Guabira	2-1 HT 1-1	Club Aurora
11/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Club Aurora	0-2 HT 0-0	Guabira
05/04/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Guabira	5-2 HT 2-1	Club Aurora
30/09/24 Bolivia Clausura	Club Aurora	2-1 HT 1-0	Guabira

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	19	13	3	3	50	20	42
2	Always Ready	19	12	6	1	43	13	42
3	The Strongest	19	11	6	2	37	21	39
4	Club Aurora	19	7	9	3	30	24	30
5	Real Potosi	19	7	8	4	25	14	29
6	Oriente Petrolero	19	8	3	8	34	27	27
7	Nacional Potosi	19	8	3	8	30	24	27
8	Blooming	19	6	8	5	29	21	26
9	Guabira	19	7	5	7	29	38	26
10	Independiente Petrolero	19	7	4	8	26	32	25
11	Real Oruro	19	6	3	10	32	48	21
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	19	6	2	11	30	43	20
13	Universitario De Vinto	19	5	2	12	25	38	17
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	19	5	2	12	18	39	17
15	Real Tomayapo	19	4	4	11	15	37	16
16	GV San Jose	19	2	8	9	19	33	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guabira	Club Aurora
Always Ready	0-6 L	2-2 D
Real Potosi	1-1 D	0-0 D
Independiente Petrolero	1-3 L	1-1 D
Blooming	1-1 D	0-3 L
The Strongest	3-1 W	1-1 D
Academia de Balompie Boliviano	1-0 W	3-2 W
Bolivar	0-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Aurora (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guabira

LWDWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-5	0-6	0	1	L
05/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
28/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
15/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
07/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	15	8	W
31/07	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
25/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	5	W
18/07	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-4	1	2	L

Club Aurora

DWDDLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/09	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	3-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	1-2	2-2	3	7	D
22/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	9	9	L
09/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-4	6	6	L
05/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	12	6	D
31/07	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/07	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	11	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guabira vs Club Aurora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guabira win (60%). Probabilities: Guabira 60%, draw 23%, Club Aurora 18%.

How many goals are expected in Guabira vs Club Aurora?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Guabira 2.11 · Club Aurora 1.09), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guabira vs Club Aurora?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.