Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 18/09, 00:30

Prediction: Real Tomayapo vs Oriente Petrolero

Team pages: Real Tomayapo · Oriente Petrolero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Real Tomayapo1.79

Oriente Petrolero1.31

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Real Tomayapo Draw Oriente Petrolero

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Tomayapo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWDWLL

Oriente Petrolero 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWDLL

Head-to-head

Real Tomayapo 2–4 Oriente Petrolero (6 last)

Oriente Petrolero3-1Real Tomayapo
Oriente Petrolero5-1Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo1-3Oriente Petrolero
Real Tomayapo1-0Oriente Petrolero
Oriente Petrolero2-1Real Tomayapo
Real Tomayapo4-3Oriente Petrolero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Tomayapo 1461 · Oriente Petrolero 1559

	Real Tomayapo	Draw	Oriente Petrolero
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oriente Petrolero (rating 1461 vs 1559).
H2H favours Oriente Petrolero: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Tomayapo	Oriente Petrolero
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.70 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90
2	2.88 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +5’	2.15	3.70	2.88
19:38 +1’	1.90▼	3.90▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Tomayapo 2–0–4 Oriente Petrolero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	3-1 HT 3-0	Real Tomayapo
01/03/26 America Friendlies	Oriente Petrolero	5-1 HT 1-0	Real Tomayapo
21/02/26 America Friendlies	Real Tomayapo	1-3 HT 0-1	Oriente Petrolero
03/12/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Tomayapo	1-0 HT 0-0	Oriente Petrolero
28/06/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Oriente Petrolero	2-1 HT 1-0	Real Tomayapo
21/12/24 Bolivia Clausura	Real Tomayapo	4-3 HT 2-1	Oriente Petrolero

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bolivar	19	13	3	3	50	20	42
2	Always Ready	19	12	6	1	43	13	42
3	The Strongest	19	11	6	2	37	21	39
4	Club Aurora	19	7	9	3	30	24	30
5	Real Potosi	19	7	8	4	25	14	29
6	Oriente Petrolero	19	8	3	8	34	27	27
7	Nacional Potosi	19	8	3	8	30	24	27
8	Blooming	19	6	8	5	29	21	26
9	Guabira	19	7	5	7	29	38	26
10	Independiente Petrolero	19	7	4	8	26	32	25
11	Real Oruro	19	6	3	10	32	48	21
12	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	19	6	2	11	30	43	20
13	Universitario De Vinto	19	5	2	12	25	38	17
14	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	19	5	2	12	18	39	17
15	Real Tomayapo	19	4	4	11	15	37	16
16	GV San Jose	19	2	8	9	19	33	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Tomayapo	Oriente Petrolero
Bolivar	1-2 L	1-2 L
Real Potosi	1-0 W	1-2 L
Always Ready	1-1 D	1-2 L
Universitario De Vinto	1-0 W	5-0 W
Real Oruro	1-2 L	3-2 W
Nacional Potosi	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Oriente Petrolero (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Tomayapo

LLDLLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
27/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
24/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
14/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
08/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	9	2	L
05/08	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-3	4	8	L
01/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
27/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	1-4	2	3	L
20/07	Blooming Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-1	6	4	L

Oriente Petrolero

DWWLWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	1	9	L
06/09	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	3-3	4	9	D
22/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	3	5	W
15/08	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	3-2	3-2	7	4	W
10/08	Universitario De Vinto Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	5-0	6	3	W
06/08	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
03/08	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/07	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-2	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Tomayapo vs Oriente Petrolero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Tomayapo win (48%). Probabilities: Real Tomayapo 48%, draw 24%, Oriente Petrolero 28%.

How many goals are expected in Real Tomayapo vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Real Tomayapo 1.79 · Oriente Petrolero 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Tomayapo vs Oriente Petrolero?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.