Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: DFK Dainava · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

DFK Dainava0.99

FK Babrungas1.1

1X2

33% 29% 38%

DFK Dainava Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDWWD

FK Babrungas 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWWWW

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 1–2 FK Babrungas (3 last)

FK Babrungas3-1DFK Dainava
FK Babrungas2-1DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava3-2FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1559 · FK Babrungas 1604

	DFK Dainava	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	31%	33%	36%
Market	34%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1559 vs 1604).
H2H favours FK Babrungas: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:24 +3’	2.63	3.40	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 1–0–2 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-1 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
17/09/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-1 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
22/05/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	3-2 HT 3-1	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Babrungas	18	15	3	0	31	4	48
2	FK Minija	18	15	1	2	45	11	46
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	18	11	2	5	25	20	35
4	FK Tauras	18	11	2	5	35	20	35
5	FK BE1	17	10	2	5	29	20	32
6	DFK Dainava	17	9	4	4	30	17	31
7	BFA Vilnius	18	9	1	8	25	27	28
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	18	7	4	7	25	26	25
9	FK Atmosfera	17	7	3	7	28	21	24
10	Lietava Jonava	18	6	5	7	22	22	23
11	FK Garliava	17	6	4	7	22	16	22
12	FK Transinvest II	18	4	3	11	16	42	15
13	FC Hegelmann II	18	4	1	13	17	42	13
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	18	3	1	14	12	31	10
15	FK Siauliai II	18	2	4	12	16	40	10
16	FK Ekranas	18	2	2	14	17	36	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	FK Babrungas
FK Transinvest II	3-1 W	1-0 W
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	1-0 W
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	2-0 W
FK BE1	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: DFK Dainava (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

DFK Dainava

WLWWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	6	W
22/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/05	FM Klaipedos Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-0	6	9	W

FK Babrungas

WDWWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D
15/05	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (38%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 33%, draw 29%, FK Babrungas 38%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 2.08 goals (DFK Dainava 0.99 · FK Babrungas 1.1), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.