Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 15/08, 12:00

Prediction: FK Garliava vs FK Tauras

Team pages: FK Garliava · FK Tauras

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

FK Garliava1.19

FK Tauras1.41

1X2

31% 27% 42%

FK Garliava Draw FK Tauras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLWLLLL

FK Tauras 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWDL

Head-to-head

FK Garliava 0–1–2 FK Tauras (3 last)

FK Tauras2-0FK Garliava
FK Tauras1-0FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-0FK Tauras

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1427 · FK Tauras 1544

	FK Garliava	Draw	FK Tauras
Our model	30%	29%	41%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Tauras (rating 1427 vs 1544).
H2H favours FK Tauras: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	FK Tauras
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.6	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.19 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:29 +6’	2.80	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:58	3.19	3.32	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 0–1–2 FK Tauras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
24/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Tauras	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
30/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Tauras

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
5	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
6	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	FK Tauras
FC Hegelmann II	1-3 L	6-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	0-2 L
FK Minija	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Transinvest II	3-0 W	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	1-1 D
FK Siauliai II	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Tauras (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Garliava

LDDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
13/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
29/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
23/05	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
19/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	6	7	L

FK Tauras

LWLWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
02/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	4-2	6	4	W
19/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
01/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
20/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
30/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	6-1	4	0	W
23/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs FK Tauras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Tauras win (42%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 31%, draw 27%, FK Tauras 42%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs FK Tauras?

The model expects 2.6 goals (FK Garliava 1.19 · FK Tauras 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs FK Tauras?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.