Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs Lietava Jonava

Team pages: FK Kauno Zalgiris II · Lietava Jonava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.05

Lietava Jonava1.46

1X2

27% 27% 46%

FK Kauno Zalgiris II Draw Lietava Jonava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLLWL

Lietava Jonava 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2–2–2 Lietava Jonava (6 last)

Lietava Jonava3-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Lietava Jonava1-1FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-0Lietava Jonava
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-0Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava0-2FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-1Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1455 · Lietava Jonava 1501

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Draw	Lietava Jonava
Our model	26%	29%	45%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lietava Jonava (rating 1455 vs 1501).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Lietava Jonava
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.1	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:47 +9’	3.20	3.60	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 2–2–2 Lietava Jonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	3-1 HT 3-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
09/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
05/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-0 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
29/07/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-0 HT 0-0	Lietava Jonava
12/03/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
19/09/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-1 HT 0-1	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	19	16	1	2	48	11	49
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
5	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
6	FK BE1	18	10	2	6	29	23	32
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	19	8	4	7	27	27	28
9	FK Atmosfera	18	7	4	7	29	22	25
10	Lietava Jonava	19	6	5	8	23	24	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	19	5	1	13	20	43	16
13	FK Transinvest II	19	4	3	12	18	46	15
14	FK Ekranas	19	3	2	14	19	37	11
15	FK Siauliai II	19	2	5	12	17	41	11
16	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	19	3	1	15	13	33	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	Lietava Jonava
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Atmosfera	3-1 W	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	1-1 D
BFA Vilnius	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lietava Jonava (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

WWLLDLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
24/06	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
12/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
30/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
24/05	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W

Lietava Jonava

DLDDWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L
27/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
21/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
07/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
30/05	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
22/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs Lietava Jonava?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lietava Jonava win (46%). Probabilities: FK Kauno Zalgiris II 27%, draw 27%, Lietava Jonava 46%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs Lietava Jonava?

The model expects 2.51 goals (FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.05 · Lietava Jonava 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kauno Zalgiris II vs Lietava Jonava?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.