Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 15/08, 17:00

Prediction: DFK Dainava vs BFA Vilnius

Team pages: DFK Dainava · BFA Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

DFK Dainava1.46

BFA Vilnius1.14

1X2

44% 27% 29%

DFK Dainava Draw BFA Vilnius

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DFK Dainava 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDWWDW

BFA Vilnius 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

DFK Dainava 4–2–0 BFA Vilnius (6 last)

BFA Vilnius0-0DFK Dainava
BFA Vilnius1-1DFK Dainava
DFK Dainava5-1BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius0-1DFK Dainava
BFA Vilnius1-2DFK Dainava
BFA Vilnius0-1DFK Dainava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DFK Dainava 1570 · BFA Vilnius 1520

	DFK Dainava	Draw	BFA Vilnius
Our model	43%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DFK Dainava (rating 1570 vs 1520).
H2H favours DFK Dainava: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DFK Dainava	BFA Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.35 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +7’	1.80	3.60	3.50
02:10 +2’	2.00▲	3.50▼	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:48	1.90	3.32	3.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DFK Dainava 4–2–0 BFA Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-0 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
21/01/23 Club Friendly List	BFA Vilnius	1-1 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava
21/08/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	DFK Dainava	5-1 HT 3-0	BFA Vilnius
09/04/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-1	DFK Dainava
15/07/20 Lithuania Cup	BFA Vilnius	1-2 HT 1-1	DFK Dainava
27/06/20 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-1 HT 0-0	DFK Dainava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
5	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
6	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DFK Dainava	BFA Vilnius
FK Transinvest II	3-1 W	4-2 W
FK Siauliai II	5-0 W	0-1 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	1-0 W
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	4-1 W
FK BE1	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

DFK Dainava

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
27/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
21/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	2	W
12/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
08/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
29/05	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	6	W
22/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	4	L

BFA Vilnius

WLLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	7	7	W
28/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
23/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania Cup	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
20/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
13/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	3	6	L
30/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DFK Dainava vs BFA Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DFK Dainava win (44%). Probabilities: DFK Dainava 44%, draw 27%, BFA Vilnius 29%.

How many goals are expected in DFK Dainava vs BFA Vilnius?

The model expects 2.6 goals (DFK Dainava 1.46 · BFA Vilnius 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DFK Dainava vs BFA Vilnius?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.