Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Babrungas

Team pages: FK Neptunas Klaipeda · FK Babrungas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda0.93

FK Babrungas0.97

1X2

34% 30% 36%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw FK Babrungas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDWWW

FK Babrungas 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWWL

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1–2–3 FK Babrungas (6 last)

FK Babrungas1-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-0FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Babrungas3-0FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda0-1FK Babrungas
FK Neptunas Klaipeda5-0FK Babrungas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1575 · FK Babrungas 1575

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	FK Babrungas
Our model	32%	34%	34%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Babrungas: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Babrungas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.88 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.38 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +39’	2.50	3.40	2.38
06:58 +6’	2.80▲	3.40	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:03 +1’	2.88	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1–2–3 FK Babrungas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
22/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
25/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
28/09/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	3-0 HT 0-0	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
10/05/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
07/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	5-0 HT 5-0	FK Babrungas

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	20	17	1	2	53	11	52
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK BE1	19	11	2	6	31	24	35
5	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
6	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	20	9	4	7	31	28	31
9	FK Atmosfera	19	7	4	8	29	24	25
10	Lietava Jonava	20	6	5	9	24	26	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FK Transinvest II	20	5	3	12	20	46	18
13	FC Hegelmann II	20	5	1	14	21	45	16
14	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	20	4	1	15	15	34	13
15	FK Ekranas	20	3	2	15	19	42	11
16	FK Siauliai II	20	2	5	13	18	45	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FK Babrungas
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-1 L	1-2 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Ekranas	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK BE1	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Hegelmann II	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

WWWWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
27/06	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
18/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	4	3	W
10/06	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
05/06	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
30/05	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
22/05	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	8	4	W

FK Babrungas

DWWWDWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
27/06	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
24/06	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/06	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
12/06	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
29/05	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
22/05	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Babrungas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Babrungas win (36%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 34%, draw 30%, FK Babrungas 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Babrungas?

The model expects 1.9 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 0.93 · FK Babrungas 0.97), with a 60% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FK Babrungas?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.