Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 14/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Ekranas vs FK Minija

Team pages: FK Ekranas · FK Minija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FK Ekranas0.6

FK Minija2.17

1X2

9% 17% 74%

FK Ekranas Draw FK Minija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

FK Ekranas 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLDW

FK Minija 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

FK Ekranas 3–2–1 FK Minija (6 last)

FK Minija2-1FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas3-0FK Minija
FK Minija1-3FK Ekranas
FK Minija0-0FK Ekranas
FK Ekranas1-1FK Minija
FK Ekranas2-1FK Minija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Ekranas 1445 · FK Minija 1569

	FK Ekranas	Draw	FK Minija
Our model	8%	19%	73%
Market	10%	16%	75%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1445 vs 1569).
H2H favours FK Ekranas: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Ekranas	FK Minija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	4.5 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

19.00

X5.75

21.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.80

2 (-2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50
X	5.75 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25
2	1.20 → 1.27▲	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +1’	9.00	5.75	1.20
00:46 +3’	7.50▼	5.25▼	1.27▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Ekranas 3–2–1 FK Minija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Ekranas
22/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Minija
26/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-3 HT 0-0	FK Ekranas
24/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Ekranas
30/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Minija
21/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Ekranas	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Minija

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	19	16	1	2	48	11	49
2	FK Babrungas	19	15	3	1	32	6	48
3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	19	12	2	5	27	20	38
4	FK Tauras	19	11	2	6	35	22	35
5	DFK Dainava	18	10	4	4	32	18	34
6	FK BE1	18	10	2	6	29	23	32
7	BFA Vilnius	19	10	1	8	29	29	31
8	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	19	8	4	7	27	27	28
9	FK Atmosfera	18	7	4	7	29	22	25
10	Lietava Jonava	19	6	5	8	23	24	23
11	FK Garliava	18	6	4	8	23	19	22
12	FC Hegelmann II	19	5	1	13	20	43	16
13	FK Transinvest II	19	4	3	12	18	46	15
14	FK Ekranas	19	3	2	14	19	37	11
15	FK Siauliai II	19	2	5	12	17	41	11
16	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	19	3	1	15	13	33	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Ekranas	FK Minija
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-1 D	0-1 L
FK Babrungas	0-2 L	0-1 L
BFA Vilnius	1-4 L	3-0 W
FK Atmosfera	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Ekranas

WLLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
01/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
25/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
19/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	1	6	L
02/07	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
27/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
20/06	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
05/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	10	L
29/05	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
22/05	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-0	7	3	W

FK Minija

LDWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
23/06	Panevezys Lithuania Cup	1-0	2-1	4	10	W
20/06	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	3-0	9	6	W
07/06	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
29/05	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Ekranas vs FK Minija?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Minija win (74%). Probabilities: FK Ekranas 9%, draw 17%, FK Minija 74%.

How many goals are expected in FK Ekranas vs FK Minija?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FK Ekranas 0.6 · FK Minija 2.17), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Ekranas vs FK Minija?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.