Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 07/08, 12:30

Prediction: Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)

Team pages: Preston Lions (W) · Melbourne City NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Preston Lions (W)2.69

Melbourne City NPL (W)0.74

1X2

78% 14% 8%

Preston Lions (W) Draw Melbourne City NPL (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne City NPL (W) 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions (W) 1468 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 1388

	Preston Lions (W)	Draw	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (W) (rating 1468 vs 1388).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions (W)	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	0.7 / 3.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	0.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X7.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20
X	7.00 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00
2	11.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:47 +1’	1.14	7.00	11.00
06:45 +2’	1.20▲	6.00▼	9.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	22	16	2	4	59	24	50
2	Essendon Royals (W)	22	15	2	5	63	24	47
3	Bulleen Lions (W)	22	14	4	4	53	21	46
4	Avondale FC (W)	22	14	2	6	55	22	44
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	22	13	1	8	47	34	40
6	South Melbourne (W)	22	11	6	5	43	22	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	22	11	3	8	28	24	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	22	9	2	11	41	47	29
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	22	8	2	12	26	32	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	22	6	5	11	32	44	23
11	Preston Lions (W)	22	6	5	11	26	41	23
12	Keilor Park (W)	22	6	5	11	22	38	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	22	2	2	18	17	74	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	22	2	1	19	21	86	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions (W)	Melbourne City NPL (W)
Keilor Park (W)	1-0 W	1-3 L
Avondale FC (W)	0-3 L	1-6 L
Boroondara Eagles (W)	2-1 W	0-3 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	2-2 D	0-5 L
Alamein FC (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Box Hill (W)	0-3 L	1-5 L
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	0-2 L	1-6 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Preston Lions (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
14/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
10/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
04/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
26/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
07/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
30/05	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
22/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	9	0	W
17/05	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	3	0	L

Melbourne City NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-6	5	2	L
25/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
18/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-3	5	0	L
04/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	1-3	2	0	L
27/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-6	0	0	L
20/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-5	3	1	L
06/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
29/05	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
15/05	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-5	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Preston Lions (W) 78%, draw 14%, Melbourne City NPL (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Preston Lions (W) 2.69 · Melbourne City NPL (W) 0.74), with a 59% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions (W) vs Melbourne City NPL (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.