Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 15/08, 07:30

Prediction: South Melbourne (W) vs Keilor Park (W)

Team pages: South Melbourne (W) · Keilor Park (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

South Melbourne (W)2

Keilor Park (W)0.55

1X2

72% 18% 10%

South Melbourne (W) Draw Keilor Park (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Keilor Park (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

South Melbourne (W) 0–1–0 Keilor Park (W) (1 last)

Keilor Park (W)0-0South Melbourne (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne (W) 1509 · Keilor Park (W) 1464

	South Melbourne (W)	Draw	Keilor Park (W)
Our model	71%	21%	8%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (W) (rating 1509 vs 1464).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:17 +7’	1.22	5.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne (W) 0–1–0 Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Keilor Park (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	South Melbourne (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne (W)	Keilor Park (W)
Avondale FC (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	1-2 L	1-0 W
Alamein FC (W)	1-1 D	0-3 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Heidelberg United (W)	2-1 W	0-2 L
Preston Lions (W)	3-0 W	0-1 L
Bentleigh Greens (W)	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Melbourne (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
25/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
18/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
05/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
20/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
06/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	10	2	W
30/05	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
23/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	11	0	W

Keilor Park (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
24/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
11/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
04/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-1	9	0	W
27/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
20/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
06/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
30/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
23/05	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne (W) win (72%). Probabilities: South Melbourne (W) 72%, draw 18%, Keilor Park (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model expects 2.55 goals (South Melbourne (W) 2 · Keilor Park (W) 0.55), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne (W) vs Keilor Park (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.