Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 14/08, 12:30

Prediction: Spring Hills FC (W) vs Alamein FC (W)

Team pages: Spring Hills FC (W) · Alamein FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Spring Hills FC (W)0.84

Alamein FC (W)1.15

1X2

27% 29% 43%

Spring Hills FC (W) Draw Alamein FC (W)

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Spring Hills FC (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLLLL

Alamein FC (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWWDLL

Head-to-head

Spring Hills FC (W) 0–1–2 Alamein FC (W) (3 last)

Alamein FC (W)1-0Spring Hills FC (W)
Spring Hills FC (W)0-1Alamein FC (W)
Alamein FC (W)0-0Spring Hills FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spring Hills FC (W) 1438 · Alamein FC (W) 1511

	Spring Hills FC (W)	Draw	Alamein FC (W)
Our model	26%	33%	41%
Market	29%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alamein FC (W) (rating 1438 vs 1511).
H2H favours Alamein FC (W): 2-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spring Hills FC (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 2.7	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.80 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:34 +41’	3.60	3.50	1.80
08:17 +8’	3.10▼	3.40▼	2.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spring Hills FC (W) 0–1–2 Alamein FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Spring Hills FC (W)
30/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Alamein FC (W)
31/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Alamein FC (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Spring Hills FC (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spring Hills FC (W)	Alamein FC (W)
Boroondara Eagles (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Box Hill (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
South Melbourne (W)	0-1 L	1-1 D
Heidelberg United (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Preston Lions (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Essendon Royals (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Spring Hills FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
25/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
17/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	2	0	L
11/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	0	0	L
03/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
26/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-2	1	1	L
02/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	0-1	0-1	2	0	L
29/05	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	6	1	D

Alamein FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
24/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/07	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	2	0	W
04/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
26/06	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
20/06	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
06/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
30/05	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	2	5	W
23/05	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-4	8	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alamein FC (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Spring Hills FC (W) 27%, draw 29%, Alamein FC (W) 43%.

How many goals are expected in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Spring Hills FC (W) 0.84 · Alamein FC (W) 1.15), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Spring Hills FC (W) vs Alamein FC (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.