Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 14/08, 12:30

Prediction: Preston Lions (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)

Team pages: Preston Lions (W) · Essendon Royals (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Preston Lions (W)0.99

Essendon Royals (W)2.33

1X2

14% 19% 67%

Preston Lions (W) Draw Essendon Royals (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDWLWW

Essendon Royals (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Preston Lions (W) 2–2–2 Essendon Royals (W) (6 last)

Essendon Royals (W)1-1Preston Lions (W)
Preston Lions (W)3-4Essendon Royals (W)
Essendon Royals (W)1-3Preston Lions (W)
Preston Lions (W)1-0Essendon Royals (W)
Preston Lions (W)2-2Essendon Royals (W)
Essendon Royals (W)2-1Preston Lions (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions (W) 1486 · Essendon Royals (W) 1577

	Preston Lions (W)	Draw	Essendon Royals (W)
Our model	14%	20%	66%
Market	14%	19%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1486 vs 1577).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions (W)	Essendon Royals (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	3.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	1.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.75 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.36 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:17 +9’	5.75	4.75	1.36
06:55 +12’	6.25▲	4.75	1.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions (W) 2–2–2 Essendon Royals (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Preston Lions (W)
04/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Preston Lions (W)	3-4 HT 1-3	Essendon Royals (W)
05/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	1-3 HT 1-3	Preston Lions (W)
30/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Preston Lions (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Essendon Royals (W)
16/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Preston Lions (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Essendon Royals (W)
25/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Essendon Royals (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Preston Lions (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions (W)	Essendon Royals (W)
Melbourne City NPL (W)	2-0 W	3-1 W
Keilor Park (W)	1-0 W	3-0 W
Avondale FC (W)	0-3 L	2-4 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	2-2 D	4-2 W
Alamein FC (W)	0-2 L	2-0 W
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Heidelberg United (W)	2-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Preston Lions (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	2-0	12	2	W
24/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
14/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
10/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
04/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
26/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
07/06	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
30/05	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
22/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	9	0	W

Essendon Royals (W)

WWLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	5-2	6	1	W
01/08	Heidelberg United (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-0	4-1	2	1	W
25/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	6-0	5	0	W
18/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	9	0	W
15/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	2-2	4-2	0	3	W
11/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
04/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	2-4	2	1	L
27/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
20/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Essendon Royals (W) win (67%). Probabilities: Preston Lions (W) 14%, draw 19%, Essendon Royals (W) 67%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Preston Lions (W) 0.99 · Essendon Royals (W) 2.33), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.