Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 14/08, 12:30

Prediction: Bentleigh Greens (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Team pages: Bentleigh Greens (W) · Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Bentleigh Greens (W)1.09

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)2.18

1X2

18% 21% 62%

Bentleigh Greens (W) Draw Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bentleigh Greens (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Bentleigh Greens (W) 0–1 Melbourne Victory NPL (W) (1 last)

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)5-0Bentleigh Greens (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bentleigh Greens (W) 1443 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 1478

	Bentleigh Greens (W)	Draw	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Our model	17%	22%	61%
Market	18%	20%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bentleigh Greens (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.6 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 1.8	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.1	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.50

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +22’	5.00	4.50	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bentleigh Greens (W) 0–0–1 Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	5-0 HT 3-0	Bentleigh Greens (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bentleigh Greens (W)	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)
Essendon Royals (W)	2-5 L	0-6 L
Melbourne City NPL (W)	2-0 W	6-1 W
Keilor Park (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Avondale FC (W)	0-3 L	1-2 L
Bulleen Lions (W)	0-1 L	0-2 L
Spring Hills FC (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
Boroondara Eagles (W)	1-0 W	2-4 L
Box Hill (W)	1-3 L	1-5 L
South Melbourne (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Bentleigh Greens (W) (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bentleigh Greens (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-5	1	1	L
25/07	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
18/07	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
10/07	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-3	0	0	L
03/07	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
26/06	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
19/06	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
05/06	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
29/05	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	1-3	2	0	L
23/05	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-2	0-2	2	0	L

Melbourne Victory NPL (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
25/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	0-6	5	0	L
19/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-2	2-4	3	0	L
04/07	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-3	1-5	4	0	L
27/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
20/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
06/06	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
30/05	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bentleigh Greens (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melbourne Victory NPL (W) win (62%). Probabilities: Bentleigh Greens (W) 18%, draw 21%, Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 62%.

How many goals are expected in Bentleigh Greens (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Bentleigh Greens (W) 1.09 · Melbourne Victory NPL (W) 2.18), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bentleigh Greens (W) vs Melbourne Victory NPL (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.