Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)

Team pages: Box Hill (W) · Avondale FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Box Hill (W)1.64

Avondale FC (W)1.54

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Box Hill (W) Draw Avondale FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Box Hill (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

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Avondale FC (W) 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Box Hill (W) 0–1 Avondale FC (W) (1 last)

Avondale FC (W)1-0Box Hill (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Box Hill (W) 1604 · Avondale FC (W) 1616

	Box Hill (W)	Draw	Avondale FC (W)
Our model	40%	26%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Box Hill (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	3.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:21 +5’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill (W) 0–0–1 Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Avondale FC (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Box Hill (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	23	17	2	4	62	26	53
2	Essendon Royals (W)	23	16	2	5	68	26	50
3	Avondale FC (W)	23	15	2	6	56	22	47
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	23	14	4	5	55	24	46
5	Boroondara Eagles (W)	23	14	1	8	48	34	43
6	South Melbourne (W)	23	11	6	6	43	23	39
7	Alamein FC (W)	23	11	3	9	28	25	36
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	23	10	2	11	44	48	32
9	Spring Hills FC (W)	23	8	2	13	27	35	26
10	Heidelberg United (W)	23	7	5	11	34	44	26
11	Preston Lions (W)	23	7	5	11	28	41	26
12	Keilor Park (W)	23	6	5	12	22	40	23
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	23	2	2	19	19	79	8
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	23	2	1	20	21	88	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Box Hill (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Bulleen Lions (W)	3-2 W	3-3 D
Alamein FC (W)	2-0 W	4-0 W
Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	5-1 W	2-1 W
South Melbourne (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Heidelberg United (W)	3-1 W	4-0 W
Preston Lions (W)	3-0 W	3-0 W
Bentleigh Greens (W)	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Box Hill (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
30/06	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
21/06	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
07/06	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
29/05	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	3-1	4	0	W

Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	4-0	4-0	4	0	W
18/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
10/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
04/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	4-2	4	1	W
27/06	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-0	6-1	10	0	W
20/06	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	12	0	W
06/06	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
30/05	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-3	3	0	D
23/05	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	4-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Box Hill (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Box Hill (W) 40%, draw 25%, Avondale FC (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Box Hill (W) 1.64 · Avondale FC (W) 1.54), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.