Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/08, 21:00
Prediction: Independiente Santa Fe vs Boyaca Chico
Team pages: Independiente Santa Fe · Boyaca Chico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Independiente Santa Fe2.11
Boyaca Chico0.7
1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
Draw
Boyaca Chico
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Santa Fe
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Boyaca Chico
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Santa Fe
3–3–0
Boyaca Chico
(6 last)
- Boyaca Chico0-1Independiente Santa Fe
- Boyaca Chico0-0Independiente Santa Fe
- Independiente Santa Fe0-0Boyaca Chico
- Independiente Santa Fe3-1Boyaca Chico
- Boyaca Chico1-2Independiente Santa Fe
- Boyaca Chico1-1Independiente Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente Santa Fe 1595 · Boyaca Chico 1462
| Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Boyaca Chico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 69% | 21% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1595 vs 1462).
- H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Santa Fe | Boyaca Chico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Santa Fe 3–3–0 Boyaca Chico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 18/10/25 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 27/04/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Boyaca Chico |
| 11/10/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Santa Fe | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Boyaca Chico |
| 27/02/24 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
| 14/09/23 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Independiente Santa Fe |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | America de Cali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Aguilas Doradas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Millonarios | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Deportivo Cali | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortaleza CEIF | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 | Alianza | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | Cucuta Deportivo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Junior | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Internacional de Bogota | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 | Boyaca Chico | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Union Magdalena Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 03/08 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 17/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Boyaca Chico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 27/05 | Llaneros Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Millonarios Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Patriotas FC Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Santa Fe vs Boyaca Chico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Santa Fe win (69%). Probabilities: Independiente Santa Fe 69%, draw 21%, Boyaca Chico 10%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Santa Fe vs Boyaca Chico?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Independiente Santa Fe 2.11 · Boyaca Chico 0.7), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Santa Fe vs Boyaca Chico?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.