Football · Colombia Primera A · 09/08, 03:30

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali

Team pages: Deportivo Pasto · Deportivo Cali

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.28Total

Deportivo Pasto1.24

Deportivo Cali1.05

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Deportivo Pasto Draw Deportivo Cali

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pasto 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLWLL

Deportivo Cali 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pasto 1–1–4 Deportivo Cali (6 last)

Deportivo Cali3-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Cali2-1Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-1Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali0-2Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto0-1Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali4-0Deportivo Pasto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1426 · Deportivo Cali 1581

	Deportivo Pasto	Draw	Deportivo Cali
Our model	39%	31%	30%
Market	39%	32%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Cali (rating 1426 vs 1581).
H2H favours Deportivo Cali: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pasto	Deportivo Cali
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	2.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.35

X2.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.43
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.30 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:39 +5’	2.35	2.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +1’	2.43	2.89	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 1–1–4 Deportivo Cali

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	3-0 HT 2-0	Deportivo Pasto
14/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	2-1 HT 2-0	Deportivo Pasto
30/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportivo Cali
03/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Pasto
24/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	0-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Cali
04/09/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Cali	4-0 HT 3-0	Deportivo Pasto

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Medellin	3	3	0	0	7	4	9
2	Llaneros	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
3	America de Cali	2	2	0	0	9	0	6
4	Aguilas Doradas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Millonarios	3	2	0	1	3	1	6
6	Deportes Tolima	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
8	Once Caldas	2	1	1	0	7	3	4
9	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
10	Deportivo Cali	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
11	Fortaleza CEIF	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
12	Independiente Santa Fe	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Alianza	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Deportivo Pereira	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Cucuta Deportivo	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
17	Internacional de Bogota	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
18	Deportivo Pasto	3	0	0	3	3	7	0
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
20	Boyaca Chico	1	0	0	1	0	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pasto	Deportivo Cali
Independiente Medellin	2-3 L	0-1 L
Deportes Tolima	0-2 L	1-1 D
Jaguares de Cordoba	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Cali (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Pasto

WLLLLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/08	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
01/08	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
29/07	Bogota FC Colombia Cup	3-0	3-0	0	6	W
25/07	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	2-2	2-3	4	7	L
22/07	Bogota FC Colombia Cup	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
14/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
10/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
04/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-4	2	5	L
24/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
17/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	2	9	W

Deportivo Cali

LWDWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
25/07	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
12/07	Alianza Lima America Friendlies	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
24/05	Real San Andres Colombia Cup	1-0	2-1	5	12	W
21/05	Alianza Colombia Cup	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/05	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
12/05	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Cup	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
03/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
26/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pasto win (39%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 39%, draw 31%, Deportivo Cali 30%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali?

The model expects 2.28 goals (Deportivo Pasto 1.24 · Deportivo Cali 1.05), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Deportivo Cali?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.