Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/08, 23:20

Prediction: Fortaleza CEIF vs Cucuta Deportivo

Team pages: Fortaleza CEIF · Cucuta Deportivo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Fortaleza CEIF1.42

Cucuta Deportivo0.79

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Fortaleza CEIF Draw Cucuta Deportivo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Fortaleza CEIF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLDDDD

Cucuta Deportivo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDDLLD

Head-to-head

Fortaleza CEIF 1–3–2 Cucuta Deportivo (6 last)

Cucuta Deportivo0-0Fortaleza CEIF
Cucuta Deportivo1-1Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF2-0Cucuta Deportivo
Cucuta Deportivo1-0Fortaleza CEIF
Cucuta Deportivo1-0Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF1-1Cucuta Deportivo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortaleza CEIF 1501 · Cucuta Deportivo 1461

	Fortaleza CEIF	Draw	Cucuta Deportivo
Our model	51%	30%	20%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortaleza CEIF (rating 1501 vs 1461).
H2H favours Cucuta Deportivo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortaleza CEIF	Cucuta Deportivo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:05 +1’	1.80	3.30	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortaleza CEIF 1–3–2 Cucuta Deportivo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Colombia Cup	Cucuta Deportivo	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortaleza CEIF
31/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Cucuta Deportivo	1-1 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
18/11/23 Colombia Primera B	Fortaleza CEIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Cucuta Deportivo
15/11/23 Colombia Primera B	Cucuta Deportivo	1-0 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
25/08/23 Colombia Primera B	Cucuta Deportivo	1-0 HT 1-0	Fortaleza CEIF
09/03/23 Colombia Primera B	Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 HT 0-0	Cucuta Deportivo

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	2	2	0	0	9	0	6
2	Aguilas Doradas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	Deportes Tolima	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Independiente Medellin	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
6	Once Caldas	2	1	1	0	7	3	4
7	Llaneros	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
9	Deportivo Cali	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	Millonarios	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Fortaleza CEIF	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Independiente Santa Fe	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Alianza	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Deportivo Pereira	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Cucuta Deportivo	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Deportivo Pasto	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
17	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
18	Internacional de Bogota	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
20	Boyaca Chico	1	0	0	1	0	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortaleza CEIF	Cucuta Deportivo
Orsomarso	1-1 D	1-1 D
Independiente Medellin	0-1 L	1-2 L
Itagui Leones	4-1 W	0-0 D
Atletico Bucaramanga	2-1 W	1-1 D
America de Cali	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fortaleza CEIF (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fortaleza CEIF

WLLWWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
27/07	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
29/05	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/05	Orsomarso Colombia Cup	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
11/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
08/05	Itagui Leones Colombia Cup	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
03/05	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
19/04	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

Cucuta Deportivo

WLDLDDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	11	D
27/07	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	10	3	L
02/06	Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
29/05	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
16/05	Itagui Leones Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
10/05	Orsomarso Colombia Cup	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
02/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
24/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
19/04	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-3	0-5	6	2	L
05/04	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortaleza CEIF vs Cucuta Deportivo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortaleza CEIF win (51%). Probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 51%, draw 29%, Cucuta Deportivo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Fortaleza CEIF vs Cucuta Deportivo?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Fortaleza CEIF 1.42 · Cucuta Deportivo 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Cucuta Deportivo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.