Football · Colombia Primera A · 09/08, 23:05

Prediction: Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga

Team pages: Alianza · Atletico Bucaramanga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Alianza1.17

Atletico Bucaramanga1.3

1X2

32% 31% 38%

Alianza Draw Atletico Bucaramanga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDDWLWDL

Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLLWDD

Head-to-head

Alianza 1–1–4 Atletico Bucaramanga (6 last)

Alianza2-1Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga5-0Alianza
Atletico Bucaramanga3-1Alianza
Alianza1-3Atletico Bucaramanga
Alianza1-2Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga0-0Alianza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza 1460 · Atletico Bucaramanga 1488

	Alianza	Draw	Atletico Bucaramanga
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	31%	31%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atletico Bucaramanga: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza	Atletico Bucaramanga
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07
2	2.55 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:55 +8’	2.80	3.00	2.55
04:37 +3’	3.00▲	3.00	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:03 +1’	2.84	3.05	2.62
23:34 +2’	2.87▲	3.07▲	2.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 1–1–4 Atletico Bucaramanga

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Colombia Cup	Alianza	2-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
01/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	5-0 HT 3-0	Alianza
06/09/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	3-1 HT 1-1	Alianza
03/08/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	1-3 HT 0-2	Atletico Bucaramanga
23/03/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	1-2 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
18/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	Independiente Medellin	3	3	0	0	7	4	9
3	Llaneros	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
4	Aguilas Doradas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Millonarios	3	2	0	1	3	1	6
6	Deportes Tolima	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	Atletico Bucaramanga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
8	Once Caldas	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
9	Independiente Santa Fe	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
10	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
11	Deportivo Cali	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
12	Internacional de Bogota	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Fortaleza CEIF	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
14	Alianza	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Deportivo Pereira	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
16	Cucuta Deportivo	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
17	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
18	Deportivo Pasto	3	0	0	3	3	7	0
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	3	0	0	3	0	6	0
20	Boyaca Chico	2	0	0	2	0	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza	Atletico Bucaramanga
Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Cali	0-1 L	0-2 L
Real San Andres	3-0 W	5-0 W
Boca Juniors De Cali	1-1 D	2-3 L
Millonarios	2-2 D	1-0 W
Llaneros	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza

LLDDDWLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
27/07	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
24/05	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Cup	0-0	2-1	8	5	W
21/05	Deportivo Cali Colombia Cup	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/05	Real San Andres Colombia Cup	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
08/05	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
03/05	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
27/04	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
19/04	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
13/04	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-2	6	0	L

Atletico Bucaramanga

LDLWLLLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	11	D
31/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
24/05	Alianza Colombia Cup	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
21/05	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Cup	0-1	2-3	10	0	L
12/05	Deportivo Cali Colombia Cup	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
08/05	Real San Andres Colombia Cup	3-0	5-0	3	1	W
03/05	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Bucaramanga win (38%). Probabilities: Alianza 32%, draw 31%, Atletico Bucaramanga 38%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Alianza 1.17 · Atletico Bucaramanga 1.3), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.