Football · Colombia Primera A · 09/08, 03:30

Prediction: America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Medellin

Team pages: America de Cali · Atletico Nacional Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

America de Cali1.28

Atletico Nacional Medellin1.19

1X2

37% 30% 33%

America de Cali Draw Atletico Nacional Medellin

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

America de Cali 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLWWDW

Atletico Nacional Medellin 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

America de Cali 1–2–3 Atletico Nacional Medellin (6 last)

Atletico Nacional Medellin2-1America de Cali
America de Cali3-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin1-0America de Cali
America de Cali2-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
Atletico Nacional Medellin4-1America de Cali
America de Cali1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · America de Cali 1536 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1583

	America de Cali	Draw	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	37%	30%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1536 vs 1583).
H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	America de Cali	Atletico Nacional Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.8	3.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:08 +1’	2.50	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · America de Cali 1–2–3 Atletico Nacional Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	2-1 HT 1-1	America de Cali
08/12/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	3-2 HT 2-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
21/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1-0 HT 0-0	America de Cali
16/11/25 Colombia Cup	America de Cali	2-2 HT 0-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin
03/11/25 Colombia Cup	Atletico Nacional Medellin	4-1 HT 1-0	America de Cali
25/08/25 Colombia Primera A	America de Cali	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Nacional Medellin

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	2	2	0	0	9	0	6
2	Aguilas Doradas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	Deportes Tolima	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Independiente Medellin	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Atletico Bucaramanga	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
6	Once Caldas	2	1	1	0	7	3	4
7	Llaneros	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Atletico Nacional Medellin	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
9	Deportivo Cali	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	Millonarios	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Fortaleza CEIF	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	Independiente Santa Fe	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
13	Alianza	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Deportivo Pereira	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
15	Cucuta Deportivo	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
16	Deportivo Pasto	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
17	Junior	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
18	Internacional de Bogota	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Jaguares de Cordoba	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
20	Boyaca Chico	1	0	0	1	0	7	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

America de Cali

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	3-0	7-0	9	3	W
30/07	Real Cartagena Colombia Cup	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
26/07	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
22/07	Real Cartagena Colombia Cup	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
16/07	Houston Dynamo Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
12/07	Unam Pumas America Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/07	Santos Laguna America Friendlies	0-0	1-0	2	0	W
29/05	Macara Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/05	CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana	0-1	1-1	5	9	D
13/05	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-4	2	5	L

Atletico Nacional Medellin

WWWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	3-0	3-0	4	3	W
29/07	Tigres FC Colombia Cup	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
21/07	Tigres FC Colombia Cup	2-0	2-0	16	3	W
18/07	Deportivo Tachira America Friendlies	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	13	6	W
03/06	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	3	8	L
24/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
17/05	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
13/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	2-1	7-1	9	1	W
09/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a America de Cali win (37%). Probabilities: America de Cali 37%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 33%.

How many goals are expected in America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model expects 2.47 goals (America de Cali 1.28 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.