Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 11/08, 00:30
Prediction: Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira
Team pages: Caracas · Deportivo La Guaira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Caracas1.05
Deportivo La Guaira1.25
1X2
Caracas
Draw
Deportivo La Guaira
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caracas
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo La Guaira
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caracas
1–5
Deportivo La Guaira
(6 last)
- Deportivo La Guaira2-0Caracas
- Deportivo La Guaira1-0Caracas
- Caracas0-1Deportivo La Guaira
- Caracas0-3Deportivo La Guaira
- Deportivo La Guaira0-2Caracas
- Deportivo La Guaira1-0Caracas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caracas 1435 · Deportivo La Guaira 1505
| Caracas | Draw | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 30% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo La Guaira (rating 1435 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Deportivo La Guaira: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caracas | Deportivo La Guaira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caracas 1–0–5 Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 28/08/25 Venezuela Cup | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 21/08/25 Venezuela Cup | Caracas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 24/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Deportivo La Guaira |
| 07/03/25 Copa Sudamericana | Deportivo La Guaira | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Caracas |
| 16/02/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Deportivo La Guaira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Estudiantes Merida | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Deportivo Tachira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Deportivo La Guaira | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Carabobo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Trujillanos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Zamora | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Portuguesa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Monagas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | UCV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Caracas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caracas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Aragua Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
Deportivo La Guaira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 28/05 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 22/05 | Independiente Rivadavia Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | UCV Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Deportivo La Guaira win (40%). Probabilities: Caracas 30%, draw 30%, Deportivo La Guaira 40%.
How many goals are expected in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Caracas 1.05 · Deportivo La Guaira 1.25), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Caracas vs Deportivo La Guaira?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.