Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 15/08, 23:30
Prediction: UCV vs Caracas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
UCV1.9
Caracas1.4
1X2
UCV
Draw
Caracas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
UCV
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Caracas
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCV
3–1–2
Caracas
(6 last)
- Caracas1-2UCV
- Caracas1-5UCV
- UCV1-3Caracas
- UCV1-3Caracas
- Caracas2-2UCV
- UCV2-0Caracas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCV 1464 · Caracas 1427
| UCV | Draw | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours UCV: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCV | Caracas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.2 | 1.2 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.2 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCV 3–1–2 Caracas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-2 HT 1-2 | UCV |
| 05/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 1-5 HT 0-2 | UCV |
| 27/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Caracas |
| 14/10/24 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Caracas |
| 15/04/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Caracas | 2-2 HT 2-2 | UCV |
| 23/01/24 Club Friendly List | UCV | 2-0 | Caracas |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Deportivo Tachira | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 4 | Portuguesa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Carabobo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Monagas | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Zamora | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Trujillanos | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 | UCV | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Caracas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UCV | Caracas |
|---|---|---|
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: UCV (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCV
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/08 | Monagas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 29/07 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
Caracas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Aragua Venezuela Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/05 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Racing Club Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCV vs Caracas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UCV win (47%). Probabilities: UCV 47%, draw 27%, Caracas 26%.
How many goals are expected in UCV vs Caracas?
The model expects 3.3 goals (UCV 1.9 · Caracas 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UCV vs Caracas?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.