Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 02/09, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

FC Flora Tallinn2.06

JK Tammeka Tartu1.07

1X2

59% 22% 19%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWLL

JK Tammeka Tartu 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWWW

Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 4–2 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu3-1FC Flora Tallinn
JK Tammeka Tartu3-1FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn3-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Flora Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1446 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1578

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1446 vs 1578).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.3	1.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +1’	1.50	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 4–0–2 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	3-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn
30/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Flora Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	24	18	5	1	64	20	59
2	JK Nomme Kalju	25	13	5	7	45	22	44
3	Paide Linnameeskond	24	12	6	6	40	31	42
4	FC Flora Tallinn	24	14	0	10	46	30	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	23	12	2	9	29	32	38
6	Harju JK Laagri	25	10	1	14	36	41	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	24	8	4	12	33	46	28
8	JK Nomme United	25	8	1	16	42	60	25
9	FC Kuressaare	25	7	4	14	27	41	25
10	JK Trans Narva	25	5	2	18	18	57	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-1 W	1-5 L
FC Kuressaare	2-3 L	1-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	1-0 W	2-1 W
JK Nomme United	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn

WLWWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
21/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
16/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	12	5	W

JK Tammeka Tartu

DWWWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
14/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
02/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-5	1-5	6	2	L
11/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-5	8	6	L
05/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	5	6	W
21/06	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
17/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
13/06	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn win (59%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 59%, draw 22%, JK Tammeka Tartu 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.13 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 2.06 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.