Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs FC Flora Tallinn

Team pages: JK Nomme United · FC Flora Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

JK Nomme United1.35

FC Flora Tallinn2.11

1X2

23% 23% 54%

JK Nomme United Draw FC Flora Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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FC Flora Tallinn 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 1–5 FC Flora Tallinn (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn1-2JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn3-1JK Nomme United
FC Flora Tallinn3-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-4FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-0JK Nomme United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1451 · FC Flora Tallinn 1528

	JK Nomme United	Draw	FC Flora Tallinn
Our model	23%	23%	54%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Flora Tallinn (rating 1451 vs 1528).
H2H favours FC Flora Tallinn: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	FC Flora Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	3.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +5’	3.80	4.00	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 1–0–5 FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 HT 0-2	JK Nomme United
29/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
10/03/26 Estonia Cup	FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme United
07/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Nomme United
05/10/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-4 HT 0-1	FC Flora Tallinn
18/08/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	FC Flora Tallinn
Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 L	2-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	1-2 L	1-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-4 L	1-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 L	3-2 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-5 L	2-1 W
FC Kuressaare	3-2 W	2-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Flora Tallinn (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-5	1	1	L
31/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
17/07	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
11/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
03/07	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	1-3	8	3	L
20/06	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-1	2	2	W

FC Flora Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L
02/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
02/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
28/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs FC Flora Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Flora Tallinn win (54%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 23%, draw 23%, FC Flora Tallinn 54%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model expects 3.46 goals (JK Nomme United 1.35 · FC Flora Tallinn 2.11), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs FC Flora Tallinn?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.