Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

JK Nomme Kalju2.25

JK Trans Narva1.04

1X2

64% 21% 15%

JK Nomme Kalju Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme Kalju 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWLLL

JK Trans Narva 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme Kalju 3–1–2 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva2-0JK Nomme Kalju
JK Trans Narva0-2JK Nomme Kalju
JK Trans Narva0-3JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju2-1JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva0-0JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-2JK Trans Narva

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1540 · JK Trans Narva 1432

	JK Nomme Kalju	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	64%	21%	15%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1540 vs 1432).
H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	1.4 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +1’	1.40	4.33	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 3–1–2 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Estonia Cup	JK Trans Narva	2-0 HT 2-0	JK Nomme Kalju
08/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju
01/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-3 HT 0-2	JK Nomme Kalju
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Trans Narva
17/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
17/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme Kalju	JK Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn	2-3 L	0-4 L
Harju JK Laagri	0-1 L	0-3 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 W	3-1 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	5-1 W	0-2 L
FC Kuressaare	0-0 D	1-3 L
JK Nomme United	3-1 W	2-1 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme Kalju

DDWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W
19/07	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-1	7	3	W
28/06	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/06	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

JK Trans Narva

LLLWWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
18/07	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
10/07	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
04/07	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
21/06	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (64%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 64%, draw 21%, JK Trans Narva 15%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 3.29 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 2.25 · JK Trans Narva 1.04), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.