Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 12/09, 13:30

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.88

Parnu JK Vaprus0.88

1X2

80% 13% 7%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDWWWWW

Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLDLLDW

Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 4–1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus1-1FC Levadia Tallinn
Parnu JK Vaprus1-6FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn2-1Parnu JK Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn3-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn1-3Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1657 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1481

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	82%	11%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1657 vs 1481).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 9.1	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.11

X8.00

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.93

2 (+2.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.11	Bet365 1.11
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +2’	1.11	8.00	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 4–1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
24/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-6 HT 1-4	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	2-1 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
24/01/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-2 HT 1-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
26/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-3 HT 0-3	FC Levadia Tallinn
22/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-3 HT 0-3	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	25	19	5	1	66	20	62
2	FC Flora Tallinn	26	16	0	10	51	33	48
3	JK Nomme Kalju	26	13	5	8	46	24	44
4	Paide Linnameeskond	25	12	6	7	40	33	42
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	25	13	2	10	33	35	41
6	Harju JK Laagri	26	10	1	15	36	43	31
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	25	9	4	12	34	46	31
8	FC Kuressaare	26	8	4	14	30	42	28
9	JK Nomme United	26	8	1	17	42	61	25
10	JK Trans Narva	26	5	2	19	19	60	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	Parnu JK Vaprus
Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 W	1-3 L
JK Nomme Kalju	3-2 W	1-3 L
JK Trans Narva	4-0 W	1-3 L
JK Nomme United	5-0 W	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

WDLWDWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W
02/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	17	5	D
04/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
28/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
20/06	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
17/06	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	10	6	W

Parnu JK Vaprus

LWLWLDLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
18/07	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	5-1	0	6	W
04/07	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	2	4	L
26/06	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
16/06	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (80%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 80%, draw 13%, Parnu JK Vaprus 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.76 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.88 · Parnu JK Vaprus 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.