Football · Brazil Copa Rio · 06/08, 00:00

Prediction: Portuguesa RJ vs Madureira RJ

Team pages: Portuguesa RJ · Madureira RJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Portuguesa RJ1.49

Madureira RJ0.9

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Portuguesa RJ Draw Madureira RJ

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portuguesa RJ 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLDWLDDW

Madureira RJ 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLWDD

Head-to-head

Portuguesa RJ 2–4–0 Madureira RJ (6 last)

Madureira RJ1-1Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa RJ0-0Madureira RJ
Madureira RJ0-2Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa RJ2-1Madureira RJ
Madureira RJ0-0Portuguesa RJ
Madureira RJ1-1Portuguesa RJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portuguesa RJ 1523 · Madureira RJ 1472

	Portuguesa RJ	Draw	Madureira RJ
Our model	50%	29%	22%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portuguesa RJ (rating 1523 vs 1472).
H2H favours Portuguesa RJ: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 13.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portuguesa RJ	Madureira RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.2	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.3	6.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:59 +25’	1.80	3.25	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portuguesa RJ 2–4–0 Madureira RJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Brazil Serie D	Madureira RJ	1-1 HT 0-0	Portuguesa RJ
19/04/26 Brazil Serie D	Portuguesa RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	Madureira RJ
26/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Madureira RJ	0-2 HT 0-0	Portuguesa RJ
19/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Portuguesa RJ	2-1 HT 1-1	Madureira RJ
05/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Madureira RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	Portuguesa RJ
02/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Madureira RJ	1-1 HT 0-1	Portuguesa RJ

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portuguesa RJ	Madureira RJ
Portuguesa Desportos	0-2 L	1-0 W
America RJ	2-2 D	1-3 L
Pouso Alegre	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Portuguesa RJ (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Portuguesa RJ

WDDLDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Americano RJ Brazil Copa Rio	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
15/07	Americano RJ Brazil Copa Rio	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
12/07	Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/07	Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
28/06	Noroeste Brazil Serie D	2-0	3-1	3	6	W
21/06	Noroeste Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
06/06	Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-2	1	9	L
31/05	America RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	2-2	12	6	D
23/05	Madureira RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
16/05	Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D	1-0	2-0	0	7	W

Madureira RJ

DLLWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Copa Rio	1-1	1-1	6	11	D
15/07	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Copa Rio	2-0	2-2	4	8	D
06/06	Pouso Alegre Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/05	EC Agua Santa Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-4	3	2	L
23/05	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
16/05	America RJ Brazil Serie D	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
09/05	Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
03/05	Portuguesa Desportos Brazil Serie D	0-2	1-2	1	6	L
25/04	America RJ Brazil Serie D	1-2	2-3	4	12	L
19/04	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	2	12	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portuguesa RJ vs Madureira RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portuguesa RJ win (50%). Probabilities: Portuguesa RJ 50%, draw 28%, Madureira RJ 22%.

How many goals are expected in Portuguesa RJ vs Madureira RJ?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Portuguesa RJ 1.49 · Madureira RJ 0.9), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Portuguesa RJ vs Madureira RJ?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.