Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 07/08, 10:30

Prediction: Lions FC vs Brisbane Roar NPL

Team pages: Lions FC · Brisbane Roar NPL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Lions FC2.8

Brisbane Roar NPL0.9

1X2

77% 14% 9%

Lions FC Draw Brisbane Roar NPL

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Lions FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Brisbane Roar NPL 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lions FC 5–1 Brisbane Roar NPL (6 last)

Brisbane Roar NPL1-3Lions FC
Brisbane Roar NPL1-2Lions FC
Lions FC3-0Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL0-5Lions FC
Lions FC1-2Brisbane Roar NPL
Lions FC3-1Brisbane Roar NPL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lions FC 1604 · Brisbane Roar NPL 1475

	Lions FC	Draw	Brisbane Roar NPL
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	77%	13%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1604 vs 1475).
H2H favours Lions FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lions FC	Brisbane Roar NPL
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.1	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.82

2 (+2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.95

Under 4.251.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +54’	1.17	7.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lions FC 5–0–1 Brisbane Roar NPL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-3 HT 1-1	Lions FC
08/06/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-2 HT 0-1	Lions FC
28/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Brisbane Roar NPL
16/06/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	0-5 HT 0-3	Lions FC
17/03/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
23/06/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Brisbane Roar NPL

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	20	15	2	3	51	20	47
2	Peninsula Power	20	13	4	3	45	23	43
3	Moreton City Excelsior	20	11	3	6	49	32	36
4	Gold Coast Knights	20	10	4	6	42	29	34
5	Wynnum Wolves	20	9	5	6	36	37	32
6	Brisbane City	20	8	6	6	43	46	30
7	Eastern Suburbs	20	9	1	10	34	33	28
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	20	8	2	10	37	39	26
9	Rochedale Rovers	20	5	3	12	31	49	18
10	Gold Coast United	20	5	2	13	24	37	17
11	Brisbane Roar NPL	20	5	1	14	29	46	16
12	Magic United	20	5	1	14	28	58	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lions FC	Brisbane Roar NPL
Peninsula Power	1-0 W	1-3 L
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	4-1 W
Eastern Suburbs	1-0 W	1-3 L
Brisbane Olympic FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
Wynnum Wolves	6-2 W	1-2 L
Rochedale Rovers	2-1 W	4-1 W
Brisbane City	4-0 W	1-1 D
Magic United	5-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	8 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lions FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lions FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
21/07	Perth Glory Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
18/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/06	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
31/05	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	4-1	5-3	5	1	W

Brisbane Roar NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
10/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-1	6	5	W
05/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
06/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
02/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/05	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
15/05	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lions FC vs Brisbane Roar NPL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lions FC win (77%). Probabilities: Lions FC 77%, draw 14%, Brisbane Roar NPL 9%.

How many goals are expected in Lions FC vs Brisbane Roar NPL?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Lions FC 2.8 · Brisbane Roar NPL 0.9), with a 58% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lions FC vs Brisbane Roar NPL?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.