Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City

Team pages: Peninsula Power · Brisbane City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Peninsula Power2.3

Brisbane City1.28

1X2

59% 21% 20%

Peninsula Power Draw Brisbane City

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Peninsula Power 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Brisbane City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Peninsula Power 4–1–1 Brisbane City (6 last)

Brisbane City1-4Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-1Brisbane City
Peninsula Power1-0Brisbane City
Brisbane City2-1Peninsula Power
Peninsula Power1-0Brisbane City
Brisbane City2-4Peninsula Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Peninsula Power 1570 · Brisbane City 1520

	Peninsula Power	Draw	Brisbane City
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	60%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peninsula Power (rating 1570 vs 1520).
H2H favours Peninsula Power: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Peninsula Power	Brisbane City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +5’	1.50	4.33	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Peninsula Power 4–1–1 Brisbane City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	1-4 HT 1-1	Peninsula Power
12/02/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series	Peninsula Power	1-1 HT 0-0	Brisbane City
15/08/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-0 HT 0-0	Brisbane City
03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	2-1 HT 1-0	Peninsula Power
04/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Peninsula Power	1-0 HT 0-0	Brisbane City
28/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane City	2-4 HT 1-3	Peninsula Power

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	21	16	2	3	55	22	50
2	Peninsula Power	21	13	5	3	47	25	44
3	Moreton City Excelsior	21	12	3	6	51	33	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	21	10	5	6	44	31	35
5	Brisbane City	21	9	6	6	45	46	33
6	Wynnum Wolves	21	9	6	6	36	37	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	21	8	2	11	38	41	26
9	Magic United	21	6	1	14	30	59	19
10	Rochedale Rovers	21	5	3	13	32	51	18
11	Gold Coast United	21	5	2	14	24	39	17
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	21	5	1	15	31	50	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Peninsula Power	Brisbane City
Gold Coast Knights	2-2 D	0-0 D
Lions FC	0-1 L	0-4 L
Wynnum Wolves	0-0 D	2-5 L
Eastern Suburbs	3-1 W	1-3 L
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-1 W	1-1 D
Brisbane Olympic FC	3-1 W	3-2 W
Rochedale Rovers	2-0 W	3-2 W
Gold Coast United	4-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Peninsula Power (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Peninsula Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
01/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
18/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-2	7	3	D
14/07	Apia L Tigers Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
10/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
04/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
27/06	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	10	5	W
21/06	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
06/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
30/05	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-0	9	5	W

Brisbane City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
31/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-5	7	3	L
18/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
12/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
05/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
27/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	5-3	9	3	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
13/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-0	1	0	W
06/06	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
31/05	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	3-2	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Peninsula Power win (59%). Probabilities: Peninsula Power 59%, draw 21%, Brisbane City 20%.

How many goals are expected in Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Peninsula Power 2.3 · Brisbane City 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Peninsula Power vs Brisbane City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.