Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Brisbane Olympic FC vs Rochedale Rovers

Team pages: Brisbane Olympic FC · Rochedale Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Brisbane Olympic FC1.88

Rochedale Rovers1.8

1X2

40% 24% 37%

Brisbane Olympic FC Draw Rochedale Rovers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane Olympic FC 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Rochedale Rovers 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Brisbane Olympic FC 4–2 Rochedale Rovers (6 last)

Rochedale Rovers3-1Brisbane Olympic FC
Rochedale Rovers0-1Brisbane Olympic FC
Brisbane Olympic FC2-0Rochedale Rovers
Brisbane Olympic FC1-0Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers2-1Brisbane Olympic FC
Rochedale Rovers1-4Brisbane Olympic FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane Olympic FC 1452 · Rochedale Rovers 1452

	Brisbane Olympic FC	Draw	Rochedale Rovers
Our model	40%	23%	37%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brisbane Olympic FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane Olympic FC	Rochedale Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	1.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +4’	2.25	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Olympic FC 4–0–2 Rochedale Rovers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Rochedale Rovers	3-1 HT 1-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
13/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Rochedale Rovers	0-1 HT 0-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
14/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Rochedale Rovers
13/08/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Olympic FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Rochedale Rovers
05/05/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Rochedale Rovers	2-1 HT 0-0	Brisbane Olympic FC
31/03/23 Australia Queensland Pro Series	Rochedale Rovers	1-4 HT 0-2	Brisbane Olympic FC

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	21	16	2	3	55	22	50
2	Peninsula Power	21	13	5	3	47	25	44
3	Moreton City Excelsior	21	12	3	6	51	33	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	21	10	5	6	44	31	35
5	Brisbane City	21	9	6	6	45	46	33
6	Wynnum Wolves	21	9	6	6	36	37	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	21	8	2	11	38	41	26
9	Magic United	21	6	1	14	30	59	19
10	Rochedale Rovers	21	5	3	13	32	51	18
11	Gold Coast United	21	5	2	14	24	39	17
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	21	5	1	15	31	50	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane Olympic FC	Rochedale Rovers
Moreton City Excelsior	1-2 L	2-5 L
Magic United	3-0 W	1-2 L
Brisbane Roar NPL	3-1 W	1-4 L
Lions FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Eastern Suburbs	2-1 W	2-1 W
Peninsula Power	1-3 L	0-2 L
Gold Coast Knights	2-5 L	4-1 W
Brisbane City	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Brisbane Olympic FC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Brisbane Olympic FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
02/08	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	3-0	6	7	W
19/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
12/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
04/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
05/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-5	4	0	L
31/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	2-2	2-3	3	4	L
26/05	Lions FC Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	1	L

Rochedale Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
31/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
14/07	SD Raiders Australia Cup	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
10/07	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-4	7	5	L
03/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
26/06	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
21/06	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
16/06	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	0-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Rochedale Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brisbane Olympic FC win (40%). Probabilities: Brisbane Olympic FC 40%, draw 24%, Rochedale Rovers 37%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Rochedale Rovers?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Brisbane Olympic FC 1.88 · Rochedale Rovers 1.8), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane Olympic FC vs Rochedale Rovers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.