Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Brisbane Roar NPL vs Gold Coast Knights

Team pages: Brisbane Roar NPL · Gold Coast Knights

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Brisbane Roar NPL1.52

Gold Coast Knights2.26

1X2

25% 21% 54%

Brisbane Roar NPL Draw Gold Coast Knights

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Brisbane Roar NPL 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWLWL

Gold Coast Knights 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDLD

Head-to-head

Brisbane Roar NPL 1–1–4 Gold Coast Knights (6 last)

Gold Coast Knights3-2Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL1-1Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights0-1Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL0-1Gold Coast Knights
Gold Coast Knights4-2Brisbane Roar NPL
Brisbane Roar NPL2-3Gold Coast Knights

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brisbane Roar NPL 1472 · Gold Coast Knights 1510

	Brisbane Roar NPL	Draw	Gold Coast Knights
Our model	25%	22%	54%
Market	25%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gold Coast Knights: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brisbane Roar NPL	Gold Coast Knights
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	3.1 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +8’	3.60	4.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Roar NPL 1–1–4 Gold Coast Knights

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	3-2 HT 0-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
19/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	1-1 HT 1-0	Gold Coast Knights
09/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	0-1 HT 0-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
27/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	0-1 HT 0-0	Gold Coast Knights
05/04/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Gold Coast Knights	4-2 HT 4-1	Brisbane Roar NPL
21/07/23 Australia NPL Queensland	Brisbane Roar NPL	2-3 HT 1-1	Gold Coast Knights

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	21	16	2	3	55	22	50
2	Peninsula Power	21	13	5	3	47	25	44
3	Moreton City Excelsior	21	12	3	6	51	33	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	21	10	5	6	44	31	35
5	Brisbane City	21	9	6	6	45	46	33
6	Wynnum Wolves	21	9	6	6	36	37	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	21	8	2	11	38	41	26
9	Magic United	21	6	1	14	30	59	19
10	Rochedale Rovers	21	5	3	13	32	51	18
11	Gold Coast United	21	5	2	14	24	39	17
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	21	5	1	15	31	50	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brisbane Roar NPL	Gold Coast Knights
Lions FC	2-4 L	2-1 W
Moreton City Excelsior	2-0 W	2-1 W
Rochedale Rovers	4-1 W	1-4 L
Brisbane City	1-1 D	0-0 D
Peninsula Power	1-3 L	2-2 D
Gold Coast United	4-1 W	0-1 L
Magic United	1-2 L	2-1 W
Wynnum Wolves	1-2 L	1-2 L
Eastern Suburbs	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gold Coast Knights (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brisbane Roar NPL

LLLWLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-4	4	5	L
02/08	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
10/07	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	4-1	6	5	W
05/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-1	3	3	W
06/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
02/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
24/05	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	1-3	4	2	L

Gold Coast Knights

WWLWWDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	9	2	D
01/08	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
25/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
18/07	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
12/07	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
07/07	Lions FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
04/07	Moreton City Excelsior Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
26/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-4	6	2	L
23/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	3-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/06	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-1	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Gold Coast Knights?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gold Coast Knights win (54%). Probabilities: Brisbane Roar NPL 25%, draw 21%, Gold Coast Knights 54%.

How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Brisbane Roar NPL 1.52 · Gold Coast Knights 2.26), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brisbane Roar NPL vs Gold Coast Knights?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.