Football · Australia NPL Queensland · 14/08, 11:30

Prediction: Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions FC

Team pages: Moreton City Excelsior · Lions FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Moreton City Excelsior1.61

Lions FC1.72

1X2

35% 24% 40%

Moreton City Excelsior Draw Lions FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Moreton City Excelsior 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLWDLW

Lions FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Moreton City Excelsior 1–2–3 Lions FC (6 last)

Lions FC2-0Moreton City Excelsior
Lions FC1-1Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior1-2Lions FC
Lions FC0-0Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior3-1Lions FC
Moreton City Excelsior0-1Lions FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moreton City Excelsior 1496 · Lions FC 1623

	Moreton City Excelsior	Draw	Lions FC
Our model	35%	25%	40%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lions FC (rating 1496 vs 1623).
H2H favours Lions FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moreton City Excelsior	Lions FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +5’	2.55	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moreton City Excelsior 1–2–3 Lions FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Moreton City Excelsior
11/03/26 Australia Queensland Pro Series	Lions FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Moreton City Excelsior
13/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	1-2 HT 1-1	Lions FC
13/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Lions FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Moreton City Excelsior
05/04/25 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	3-1 HT 2-0	Lions FC
07/09/24 Australia NPL Queensland	Moreton City Excelsior	0-1 HT 0-1	Lions FC

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lions FC	21	16	2	3	55	22	50
2	Peninsula Power	21	13	5	3	47	25	44
3	Moreton City Excelsior	21	12	3	6	51	33	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	21	10	5	6	44	31	35
5	Brisbane City	21	9	6	6	45	46	33
6	Wynnum Wolves	21	9	6	6	36	37	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	21	9	2	10	34	33	29
8	Brisbane Olympic FC	21	8	2	11	38	41	26
9	Magic United	21	6	1	14	30	59	19
10	Rochedale Rovers	21	5	3	13	32	51	18
11	Gold Coast United	21	5	2	14	24	39	17
12	Brisbane Roar NPL	21	5	1	15	31	50	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moreton City Excelsior	Lions FC
Brisbane Olympic FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Brisbane Roar NPL	0-2 L	4-2 W
Peninsula Power	2-2 D	1-0 W
Gold Coast Knights	1-2 L	1-2 L
Gold Coast United	1-0 W	1-0 W
Wynnum Wolves	2-2 D	6-2 W
Rochedale Rovers	5-2 W	2-1 W
Eastern Suburbs	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lions FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Moreton City Excelsior

LDWDWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
02/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
18/07	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
11/07	Magic United Australia NPL Queensland	2-1	4-3	4	11	W
04/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
28/06	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
20/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	0-1	2-2	10	4	D
16/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	5-2	10	2	W
05/06	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/05	Brisbane City Australia NPL Queensland	1-3	2-5	5	7	L

Lions FC

WWWLWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Melbourne City Australia Cup	1-0	2-0	11	4	W
07/08	Brisbane Roar NPL Australia NPL Queensland	1-2	4-2	6	5	W
01/08	Peninsula Power Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
21/07	Perth Glory Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
18/07	Gold Coast United Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/07	Eastern Suburbs Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Gold Coast Knights Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
04/07	Brisbane Olympic FC Australia NPL Queensland	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/06	Wynnum Wolves Australia NPL Queensland	2-0	6-2	13	2	W
21/06	Rochedale Rovers Australia NPL Queensland	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lions FC win (40%). Probabilities: Moreton City Excelsior 35%, draw 24%, Lions FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions FC?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Moreton City Excelsior 1.61 · Lions FC 1.72), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Moreton City Excelsior vs Lions FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.