Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 19:00

Prediction: FC Lasten vs TP-T

Team pages: FC Lasten · TP-T

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

FC Lasten3.24

TP-T1.24

1X2

81% 11% 7%

FC Lasten Draw TP-T

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lasten 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDW

TP-T 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Lasten 2–1–0 TP-T (3 last)

TP-T2-4FC Lasten
TP-T2-5FC Lasten
FC Lasten1-1TP-T

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lasten 1645 · TP-T 1491

	FC Lasten	Draw	TP-T
Our model	76%	14%	11%
Market	86%	9%	5%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lasten (rating 1645 vs 1491).
H2H favours FC Lasten: 2-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lasten	TP-T
Goals for / against (FT)	4.2 / 0.7	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	2 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/11/22%	25/38/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.1	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.07

X10.00

219.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3)1.82

2 (+3)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07
X	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	19.00 → 19.00	Bet365 19.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:04 +2’	1.07	10.00	19.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lasten 2–1–0 TP-T

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	2-4 HT 2-0	FC Lasten
04/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	TP-T	2-5 HT 2-0	FC Lasten
29/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lasten	1-1 HT 0-1	TP-T

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	13	12	1	0	52	11	37
2	TPV II	13	9	1	3	29	17	28
3	Tampere Utd II	13	8	3	2	24	14	27
4	NoPS	13	8	2	3	38	16	26
5	Ylojarvi United	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	FC LeKi	12	5	2	5	24	22	17
7	FC Haka Juniors	13	5	1	7	27	32	16
8	TP-T	12	4	2	6	22	25	14
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	13	4	2	7	17	32	14
10	Fish United	13	3	2	8	15	31	11
11	ACE	13	2	1	10	24	39	7
12	TP-49	13	0	1	12	8	50	1

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lasten	TP-T
TPV II	3-1 W	0-3 L
Tampere Utd II	1-1 D	0-2 L
NoPS	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC LeKi	3-1 W	2-0 W
TP-49	4-0 W	4-1 W
Fish United	6-0 W	4-1 W
ACE	6-2 W	2-1 W
Ylojarvi United	4-0 W	3-1 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	10-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	8 W 1 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lasten (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lasten

WWWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	9	7	W
25/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
04/07	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
25/06	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	9	5	W
17/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-1	3	6	W
12/06	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
04/06	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	6-0	3	1	W
29/05	ACE Finland Kolmonen	4-2	6-2	4	7	W
21/05	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	5	5	W
16/05	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	6-1	10-1	6	4	W

TP-T

WLLDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
22/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-3	4	7	L
17/07	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
03/07	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
27/06	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
11/06	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
05/06	NoPS Finland Kolmonen	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/05	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
14/05	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
09/05	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lasten vs TP-T?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lasten win (81%). Probabilities: FC Lasten 81%, draw 11%, TP-T 7%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lasten vs TP-T?

The model expects 4.48 goals (FC Lasten 3.24 · TP-T 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lasten vs TP-T?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.