Football · Finland Kolmonen · 15/08, 14:00

Prediction: PIF Parainen vs VG-62

Team pages: PIF Parainen · VG-62

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

PIF Parainen2.2

VG-621.13

1X2

62% 20% 18%

PIF Parainen Draw VG-62

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

PIF Parainen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWDWLWWL

VG-62 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

PIF Parainen 3–2 VG-62 (5 last)

PIF Parainen2-1VG-62
VG-621-5PIF Parainen
PIF Parainen2-0VG-62
VG-621-0PIF Parainen
VG-623-2PIF Parainen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PIF Parainen 1539 · VG-62 1468

	PIF Parainen	Draw	VG-62
Our model	61%	22%	18%
Market	62%	19%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PIF Parainen (rating 1539 vs 1468).
H2H favours PIF Parainen: 3-0-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PIF Parainen	VG-62
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.6	1.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.75

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +10’	1.45	4.75	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PIF Parainen 3–0–2 VG-62

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	2-1 HT 0-0	VG-62
25/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	1-5 HT 1-1	PIF Parainen
21/09/24 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	2-0 HT 0-0	VG-62
07/06/24 Finland Kolmonen	VG-62	1-0 HT 1-0	PIF Parainen
22/03/24 Finland Cup	VG-62	3-2 HT 2-1	PIF Parainen

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	14	11	1	2	38	13	34
2	EuPa	14	10	2	2	32	10	32
3	PIF Parainen	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
4	Peimari United	15	5	7	3	26	18	22
5	VG-62	13	7	0	6	19	17	21
6	SalPa 2	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	MaPS	14	6	2	6	23	24	20
8	LTU	15	6	2	7	18	20	20
9	KaaPo	15	6	0	9	26	33	18
10	ACF	15	2	5	8	13	31	11
11	JyTy	14	3	2	9	16	37	11
12	PiPS	15	2	2	11	14	35	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PIF Parainen	VG-62
Peimari United	0-3 L	1-3 L
JyTy	3-1 W	1-0 W
KaaPo	4-2 W	1-3 L
EuPa	1-2 L	2-1 W
MaPS	2-0 W	1-2 L
SalPa 2	1-1 D	1-3 L
ACF	3-0 W	3-0 W
PiPS	3-1 W	3-0 W
LTU	1-0 W	1-2 L
IFK Mariehamn II	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: PIF Parainen (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PIF Parainen

LWWWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/07	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-2	7	3	W
02/07	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	9	2	L
27/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
14/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
05/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	13	2	W
28/05	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
22/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
16/05	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L

VG-62

LWLWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
28/07	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
23/07	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/06	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
13/06	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
05/06	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
29/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/05	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/05	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PIF Parainen vs VG-62?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PIF Parainen win (62%). Probabilities: PIF Parainen 62%, draw 20%, VG-62 18%.

How many goals are expected in PIF Parainen vs VG-62?

The model expects 3.33 goals (PIF Parainen 2.2 · VG-62 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in PIF Parainen vs VG-62?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.