Football · Finland Kolmonen · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: EPS Reservi vs Poxyt

Team pages: EPS Reservi · Poxyt

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.39Total

EPS Reservi2.01

Poxyt2.38

1X2

33% 20% 47%

EPS Reservi Draw Poxyt

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

EPS Reservi 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLWLL

Poxyt 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLWLW

Head-to-head

EPS Reservi 3–1–2 Poxyt (6 last)

Poxyt5-0EPS Reservi
EPS Reservi0-0Poxyt
Poxyt1-3EPS Reservi
Poxyt0-1EPS Reservi
Poxyt5-2EPS Reservi
EPS Reservi2-1Poxyt

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EPS Reservi 1433 · Poxyt 1495

	EPS Reservi	Draw	Poxyt
Our model	33%	21%	47%
Market	33%	20%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 4.39 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Poxyt (rating 1433 vs 1495).
H2H favours EPS Reservi: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EPS Reservi	Poxyt
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	13/25/63%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.9 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.82

Under 41.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:55 +10’	2.70	4.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EPS Reservi 3–1–2 Poxyt

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	5-0	EPS Reservi
09/08/25 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	0-0 HT 0-0	Poxyt
03/05/25 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	1-3 HT 1-2	EPS Reservi
27/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	0-1 HT 0-0	EPS Reservi
23/09/22 Finland Kolmonen	Poxyt	5-2 HT 2-0	EPS Reservi
30/08/22 Finland Kolmonen	EPS Reservi	2-1 HT 1-1	Poxyt

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	15	12	1	2	57	20	37
2	ESPA	15	12	1	2	39	12	37
3	LePa	15	9	2	4	34	28	29
4	Poxyt	14	8	1	5	32	29	25
5	NuPS	15	6	4	5	26	21	22
6	LoPa	15	7	1	7	24	24	22
7	Gilla FC	15	5	2	8	30	35	17
8	PPJ/Ruoholahti	14	4	3	7	21	36	15
9	GrIFK Reservi	14	4	2	8	24	28	14
10	MPS	15	3	3	9	13	27	12
11	EPS Reservi	14	3	3	8	20	42	12
12	HooGee	15	3	1	11	27	45	10

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EPS Reservi	Poxyt
EIF Academy	0-3 L	3-7 L
LoPa	1-4 L	0-2 L
GrIFK Reservi	2-0 W	4-2 W
PPJ/Ruoholahti	1-5 L	3-0 W
LePa	2-1 W	1-5 L
MPS	0-0 D	2-3 L
ESPA	2-4 L	1-4 L
NuPS	1-1 D	2-1 W
Gilla FC	1-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 5 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EPS Reservi

LDLDLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
31/07	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-4	1-4	4	2	L
26/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-5	3	3	L
24/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-3	2-9	0	1	L
14/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/05	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
24/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	4	3	L

Poxyt

WWLLWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/07	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-5	2	2	L
23/07	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
28/06	MPS Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	2	2	L
16/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
10/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
05/06	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	2-4	3-7	1	4	L
29/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-4	2	5	L
22/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	5	1	W
13/05	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EPS Reservi vs Poxyt?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Poxyt win (47%). Probabilities: EPS Reservi 33%, draw 20%, Poxyt 47%.

How many goals are expected in EPS Reservi vs Poxyt?

The model expects 4.39 goals (EPS Reservi 2.01 · Poxyt 2.38), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in EPS Reservi vs Poxyt?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.