Football · Finland Kolmonen · 15/08, 14:00

Prediction: EuPa vs JyTy

Team pages: EuPa · JyTy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

EuPa2.94

JyTy0.99

1X2

77% 14% 10%

EuPa Draw JyTy

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

EuPa 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWDWW

JyTy 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

EuPa 1–0 JyTy (1 last)

JyTy1-5EuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EuPa 1566 · JyTy 1454

	EuPa	Draw	JyTy
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	77%	13%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EuPa (rating 1566 vs 1454).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EuPa	JyTy
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.82

2 (+2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.90

Under 41.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +9’	1.17	7.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · EuPa 1–0–0 JyTy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	JyTy	1-5 HT 1-3	EuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	14	11	1	2	38	13	34
2	EuPa	14	10	2	2	32	10	32
3	PIF Parainen	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
4	Peimari United	15	5	7	3	26	18	22
5	VG-62	13	7	0	6	19	17	21
6	SalPa 2	15	6	3	6	20	20	21
7	MaPS	14	6	2	6	23	24	20
8	LTU	15	6	2	7	18	20	20
9	KaaPo	15	6	0	9	26	33	18
10	ACF	15	2	5	8	13	31	11
11	JyTy	14	3	2	9	16	37	11
12	PiPS	15	2	2	11	14	35	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EuPa	JyTy
PiPS	4-1 W	0-1 L
KaaPo	4-1 W	2-1 W
LTU	0-0 D	3-2 W
PIF Parainen	2-1 W	1-3 L
IFK Mariehamn II	1-2 L	0-5 L
MaPS	5-1 W	1-1 D
VG-62	1-2 L	0-1 L
SalPa 2	1-0 W	3-2 W
Peimari United	1-1 D	2-2 D
ACF	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: EuPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EuPa

WDWLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
01/08	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
02/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
27/06	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	3	5	W
05/06	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
30/05	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
14/05	ACF Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W

JyTy

DLWLLWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-1	2	7	W
01/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
23/07	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
18/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	6	1	L
01/07	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
25/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
11/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
04/06	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	6	3	W
22/05	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EuPa vs JyTy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EuPa win (77%). Probabilities: EuPa 77%, draw 14%, JyTy 10%.

How many goals are expected in EuPa vs JyTy?

The model expects 3.94 goals (EuPa 2.94 · JyTy 0.99), with a 53% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in EuPa vs JyTy?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.