Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 17:15

Prediction: JyTy vs KaaPo

Team pages: JyTy · KaaPo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

JyTy1.53

KaaPo2.45

1X2

22% 21% 57%

JyTy Draw KaaPo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

JyTy 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLLWLDL

KaaPo 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

JyTy 0–2 KaaPo (2 last)

KaaPo6-1JyTy
JyTy0-5KaaPo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JyTy 1430 · KaaPo 1500

	JyTy	Draw	KaaPo
Our model	23%	20%	57%
Market	22%	21%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KaaPo (rating 1430 vs 1500).
H2H favours KaaPo: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JyTy	KaaPo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	1.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.33

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:57 +8’	4.00	4.33	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JyTy 0–0–2 KaaPo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Finland Kolmonen	KaaPo	6-1 HT 3-1	JyTy
11/05/17 Finland Kolmonen	JyTy	0-5 HT 0-4	KaaPo

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Mariehamn II	13	10	1	2	36	13	31
2	EuPa	13	9	2	2	28	9	29
3	PIF Parainen	12	8	2	2	27	11	26
4	SalPa 2	13	6	3	4	19	16	21
5	VG-62	12	7	0	5	18	15	21
6	KaaPo	13	6	0	7	25	28	18
7	MaPS	13	5	2	6	21	23	17
8	Peimari United	13	3	7	3	20	18	16
9	LTU	13	4	2	7	12	18	14
10	ACF	13	1	5	7	10	26	8
11	PiPS	13	2	2	9	12	29	8
12	JyTy	13	2	2	9	14	36	8

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JyTy	KaaPo
PIF Parainen	1-3 L	2-4 L
MaPS	1-1 D	2-1 W
IFK Mariehamn II	0-5 L	2-1 W
SalPa 2	3-2 W	0-2 L
ACF	0-2 L	5-3 W
PiPS	0-1 L	0-1 L
LTU	3-2 W	2-0 W
VG-62	0-1 L	3-1 W
Peimari United	2-2 D	2-5 L
EuPa	1-5 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	5 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: KaaPo (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JyTy

LDLWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
23/07	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
18/07	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-5	6	1	L
01/07	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	0	5	W
25/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
11/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
04/06	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	6	3	W
22/05	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-2	3	7	D
07/05	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	1-3	1-5	4	4	L

KaaPo

LWWWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	EuPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/07	PIF Parainen Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-4	1	3	L
23/06	SalPa 2 Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
17/06	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	10	9	W
12/06	ACF Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-3	5	1	W
03/06	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
29/05	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
23/05	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	2-1	–	–	W
14/05	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-1	0	5	W
09/05	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	2-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JyTy vs KaaPo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KaaPo win (57%). Probabilities: JyTy 22%, draw 21%, KaaPo 57%.

How many goals are expected in JyTy vs KaaPo?

The model expects 3.98 goals (JyTy 1.53 · KaaPo 2.45), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JyTy vs KaaPo?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.