Football · Finland Kolmonen · 05/08, 19:30

Prediction: MPS vs GrIFK Reservi

Team pages: MPS · GrIFK Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

MPS1.62

GrIFK Reservi1.68

1X2

37% 24% 39%

MPS Draw GrIFK Reservi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

MPS 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDLWLL

GrIFK Reservi 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWWLLL

Head-to-head

MPS 1–0 GrIFK Reservi (1 last)

GrIFK Reservi2-4MPS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MPS 1454 · GrIFK Reservi 1457

	MPS	Draw	GrIFK Reservi
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	38%	22%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MPS	GrIFK Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/22/67%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.9 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X4.00

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +3’	2.40	4.00	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MPS 1–0–0 GrIFK Reservi

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	2-4 HT 1-3	MPS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	13	10	1	2	52	20	31
2	ESPA	13	10	1	2	33	11	31
3	LePa	13	7	2	4	26	22	23
4	NuPS	13	6	4	3	26	17	22
5	Poxyt	13	7	1	5	29	28	22
6	LoPa	13	6	1	6	20	20	19
7	Gilla FC	13	5	2	6	28	28	17
8	MPS	13	3	3	7	12	22	12
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	13	3	3	7	18	34	12
10	EPS Reservi	13	3	3	7	20	39	12
11	GrIFK Reservi	13	3	2	8	21	28	11
12	HooGee	13	3	1	9	21	37	10

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MPS	GrIFK Reservi
Gilla FC	2-3 L	1-2 L
EIF Academy	0-4 L	1-2 L
Poxyt	3-2 W	2-4 L
NuPS	0-2 L	0-3 L
EPS Reservi	0-0 D	0-2 L
HooGee	2-0 W	1-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	0-0 D	1-1 D
LePa	0-1 L	4-0 W
ESPA	0-4 L	4-2 W
LoPa	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MPS

LLLDWDLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
28/06	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
17/06	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
14/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/06	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
28/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	0	D
22/05	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
15/05	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-4	0-4	2	1	L
08/05	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L

GrIFK Reservi

DLLLWWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
26/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
03/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
12/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
07/06	LePa Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
27/05	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
21/05	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
13/05	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	–	2-4	–	–	L
07/05	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MPS vs GrIFK Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an GrIFK Reservi win (39%). Probabilities: MPS 37%, draw 24%, GrIFK Reservi 39%.

How many goals are expected in MPS vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model expects 3.29 goals (MPS 1.62 · GrIFK Reservi 1.68), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MPS vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.