Football · China Division 2 · 05/08, 13:30

Prediction: Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan

Team pages: Hubei Istar · Jiangxi Lushan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Hubei Istar1.16

Jiangxi Lushan1.14

1X2

35% 31% 34%

Hubei Istar Draw Jiangxi Lushan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hubei Istar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWDWDD

Jiangxi Lushan 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Hubei Istar 2–2–1 Jiangxi Lushan (5 last)

Jiangxi Lushan0-1Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar1-1Jiangxi Lushan
Jiangxi Lushan2-4Hubei Istar
Jiangxi Lushan2-0Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar1-1Jiangxi Lushan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hubei Istar 1541 · Jiangxi Lushan 1463

	Hubei Istar	Draw	Jiangxi Lushan
Our model	35%	31%	34%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubei Istar (rating 1541 vs 1463).
H2H favours Hubei Istar: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hubei Istar	Jiangxi Lushan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3	1.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +2’	2.55	2.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubei Istar 2–2–1 Jiangxi Lushan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	0-1 HT 0-1	Hubei Istar
26/07/25 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-1 HT 1-0	Jiangxi Lushan
14/05/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	2-4 HT 1-2	Hubei Istar
03/08/19 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	2-0 HT 1-0	Hubei Istar
27/04/19 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-1 HT 0-1	Jiangxi Lushan

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	18	12	1	5	27	13	37
2	Shenzhen 2028	19	9	6	4	30	23	33
3	Hubei Istar	18	8	7	3	26	18	31
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	19	6	8	5	18	19	26
5	Jiangxi Lushan	18	7	5	6	21	17	26
6	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	19	5	10	4	19	25	25
7	Xiamen Feilu	19	6	7	6	27	26	25
8	Guangdong Mingtu	19	4	10	5	19	19	22
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	19	5	5	9	19	27	20
10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	19	4	6	9	15	21	18
11	Wenzhou FC	18	3	8	7	12	20	17
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	19	3	7	9	16	21	16

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hubei Istar	Jiangxi Lushan
Guangdong Mingtu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Wenzhou FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ganzhou Ruishi	4-4 D	0-1 L
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	2-0 W	2-1 W
Xiamen Feilu	0-0 D	0-2 L
Guangzhou Dandelion	3-2 W	2-0 W
Shenzhen 2028	1-2 L	1-2 L
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-1 L	1-2 L
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	3-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hubei Istar (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hubei Istar

WLLWDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D
27/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
19/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	3-2	0	2	W
14/06	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
26/05	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
22/05	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Jiangxi Lushan

LWLLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
28/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
24/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
19/06	Henan China FA Cup	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
13/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
27/05	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hubei Istar win (35%). Probabilities: Hubei Istar 35%, draw 31%, Jiangxi Lushan 34%.

How many goals are expected in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Hubei Istar 1.16 · Jiangxi Lushan 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Hubei Istar vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.