Football · China Division 2 · 15/08, 10:00

Prediction: Shanghai Segenda vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Team pages: Shanghai Segenda · Nantong Haimen Codion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Shanghai Segenda1.16

Nantong Haimen Codion1.16

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Shanghai Segenda Draw Nantong Haimen Codion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shanghai Segenda 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLDDL

Nantong Haimen Codion 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Shanghai Segenda 0–1–0 Nantong Haimen Codion (1 last)

Nantong Haimen Codion2-2Shanghai Segenda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanghai Segenda 1428 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1490

	Shanghai Segenda	Draw	Nantong Haimen Codion
Our model	35%	31%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Haimen Codion (rating 1428 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shanghai Segenda	Nantong Haimen Codion
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.6	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +8’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Segenda 0–1–0 Nantong Haimen Codion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 China Division 2	Nantong Haimen Codion	2-2 HT 1-2	Shanghai Segenda

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	20	12	4	4	31	18	40
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	20	12	3	5	29	16	39
3	Shanghai Port Reserves	20	11	4	5	34	18	37
4	Dalian Kewei	20	8	10	2	20	12	34
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	20	5	10	5	17	18	25
7	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	20	3	13	4	12	16	22
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	19	4	9	6	20	20	21
9	Qingdao Red Lions	19	4	9	6	20	17	21
10	Changchun Xidu	20	2	10	8	11	25	16
11	Shanghai Segenda	20	2	8	10	20	35	14
12	Beijing Institute	20	2	6	12	15	37	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shanghai Segenda	Nantong Haimen Codion
Beijing Institute	1-2 L	2-1 W
Changchun Xidu	1-1 D	0-0 D
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	2-2 D	0-0 D
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-2 L	0-0 D
Dalian Kewei	1-1 D	1-2 L
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-2 L	0-2 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	1-2 L	1-2 L
Tai'an Tiankuang	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Haimen Codion (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shanghai Segenda

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
02/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
25/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
18/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
05/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
27/06	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
23/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
19/06	Shanghai Port China FA Cup	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
13/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D

Nantong Haimen Codion

DDLDDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	2-1	10	4	W
26/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	10	1	L
19/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
04/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
27/06	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
19/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
27/05	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-2	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanghai Segenda vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Segenda win (35%). Probabilities: Shanghai Segenda 35%, draw 29%, Nantong Haimen Codion 35%.

How many goals are expected in Shanghai Segenda vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Shanghai Segenda 1.16 · Nantong Haimen Codion 1.16), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shanghai Segenda vs Nantong Haimen Codion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.