Football · China Division 2 · 15/08, 10:00

Prediction: Qingdao Red Lions vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Team pages: Qingdao Red Lions · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Qingdao Red Lions0.65

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1.45

1X2

16% 28% 56%

Qingdao Red Lions Draw Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Qingdao Red Lions 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWDLLWD

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Qingdao Red Lions 1–0 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (1 last)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai2-3Qingdao Red Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qingdao Red Lions 1521 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1572

	Qingdao Red Lions	Draw	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Our model	15%	29%	55%
Market	16%	27%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1521 vs 1572).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qingdao Red Lions	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	1.5 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.50

X3.30

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +9’	5.50	3.30	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Qingdao Red Lions 1–0–0 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	2-3 HT 0-2	Qingdao Red Lions

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shandong Taishan Reserves	20	12	4	4	31	18	40
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	20	12	3	5	29	16	39
3	Shanghai Port Reserves	20	11	4	5	34	18	37
4	Dalian Kewei	20	8	10	2	20	12	34
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	20	8	6	6	23	20	30
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	20	5	10	5	17	18	25
7	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	20	3	13	4	12	16	22
8	Nantong Haimen Codion	19	4	9	6	20	20	21
9	Qingdao Red Lions	19	4	9	6	20	17	21
10	Changchun Xidu	20	2	10	8	11	25	16
11	Shanghai Segenda	20	2	8	10	20	35	14
12	Beijing Institute	20	2	6	12	15	37	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qingdao Red Lions	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Beijing Institute	6-1 W	2-0 W
Tai'an Tiankuang	0-1 L	3-2 W
Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-0 D	2-1 W
Shanghai Segenda	2-0 W	2-0 W
Dalian Kewei	0-0 D	2-0 W
Shanghai Port Reserves	2-1 W	1-0 W
Changchun Xidu	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Qingdao Red Lions

DWDDWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	3-0	6-1	2	1	W
19/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
27/06	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
23/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
20/06	Wuhan Three Towns China FA Cup	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
14/06	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-1	8	3	W
07/06	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

DWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
05/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
26/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
19/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-1	1	2	W
08/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
28/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
19/06	Qingdao West Coast China FA Cup	1-1	1-1	1	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qingdao Red Lions vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shanxi Chongde Ronghai win (56%). Probabilities: Qingdao Red Lions 16%, draw 28%, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 56%.

How many goals are expected in Qingdao Red Lions vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Qingdao Red Lions 0.65 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1.45), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Qingdao Red Lions vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.