Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 05/09, 16:30
Prediction: Sabah vs Zira IK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Sabah1.54
Zira IK1
1X2
Sabah
Draw
Zira IK
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sabah
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Zira IK
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sabah
3–3–0
Zira IK
(6 last)
- Sabah2-1Zira IK
- Sabah2-2Zira IK
- Zira IK1-3Sabah
- Sabah3-0Zira IK
- Zira IK1-1Sabah
- Sabah1-1Zira IK
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sabah 1624 · Zira IK 1539
| Sabah | Draw | Zira IK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabah (rating 1624 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Sabah: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sabah | Zira IK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.9 | 1.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sabah 3–3–0 Zira IK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Azerbaijan Cup | Sabah | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Zira IK |
| 11/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Zira IK |
| 31/01/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Zira IK | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Sabah |
| 19/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Zira IK |
| 17/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Zira IK | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sabah |
| 15/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Zira IK |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zira IK | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Sabah | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 | Shamakhi FK | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 6 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | FK Gabala | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Imisli | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Safa Baku | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | FK Kapaz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 11 | Araz FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 12 | FK Sumqayit | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sabah | Zira IK |
|---|---|---|
| Araz FK | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| PFK Turan Tovuz | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Neftchi Baku | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sabah (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sabah
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 07/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
Zira IK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/04 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sabah vs Zira IK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sabah win (49%). Probabilities: Sabah 49%, draw 28%, Zira IK 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sabah vs Zira IK?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Sabah 1.54 · Zira IK 1), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sabah vs Zira IK?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.