Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 06/09, 18:15

Prediction: FK Qarabag vs Araz FK

Team pages: FK Qarabag · Araz FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

FK Qarabag2.85

Araz FK0.85

1X2

79% 14% 7%

FK Qarabag Draw Araz FK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Qarabag 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDWWWW

Araz FK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

FK Qarabag 5–1 Araz FK (6 last)

FK Qarabag6-0Araz FK
FK Qarabag5-1Araz FK
Araz FK0-5FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag2-0Araz FK
FK Qarabag3-0Araz FK
Araz FK1-0FK Qarabag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Qarabag 1605 · Araz FK 1413

	FK Qarabag	Draw	Araz FK
Our model	78%	14%	8%
Market	80%	14%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Qarabag (rating 1605 vs 1413).
H2H favours FK Qarabag: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Qarabag	Araz FK
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	0.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X6.50

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)2.00

2 (+2.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Pinn 1.14
X	6.50 → 6.50	Pinn 7.12 ★
2	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:20 +3’	1.14	6.50	15.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:48 +1’	1.14	7.12	13.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Qarabag 5–0–1 Araz FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	6-0 HT 3-0	Araz FK
14/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	5-1 HT 2-0	Araz FK
21/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	0-5 HT 0-2	FK Qarabag
11/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	2-0 HT 1-0	Araz FK
23/04/25 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Qarabag	3-0 HT 0-0	Araz FK
02/04/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Araz FK	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Qarabag

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zira IK	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
2	Neftchi Baku	3	2	0	1	8	2	6
3	FK Qarabag	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Sabah	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Shamakhi FK	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
6	PFK Turan Tovuz	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
7	FK Gabala	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
8	Imisli	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
9	Safa Baku	3	1	0	2	1	3	3
10	FK Kapaz	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
11	Araz FK	3	0	1	2	0	6	1
12	FK Sumqayit	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Qarabag	Araz FK
FK Sumqayit	1-0 W	1-2 L
Imisli	3-0 W	0-0 D
FK Gabala	1-1 D	1-1 D
PFK Turan Tovuz	2-1 W	0-3 L
Neftchi Baku	1-2 L	0-5 L
Sabah	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Qarabag (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Qarabag

DLWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
17/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
22/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	4-3	1	4	W
16/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	3-0	10	3	W
09/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
04/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/04	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	8	L
26/04	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	5-1	3	3	W
18/04	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
11/04	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	12	5	D

Araz FK

LLDLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
23/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-4	0-5	5	4	L
15/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
15/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
09/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
02/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
25/04	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/04	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
11/04	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Qarabag vs Araz FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Qarabag win (79%). Probabilities: FK Qarabag 79%, draw 14%, Araz FK 7%.

How many goals are expected in FK Qarabag vs Araz FK?

The model expects 3.69 goals (FK Qarabag 2.85 · Araz FK 0.85), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Qarabag vs Araz FK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.