Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 13/09, 14:30
Prediction: Araz FK vs PFK Turan Tovuz
Team pages: Araz FK · PFK Turan Tovuz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Araz FK0.78
PFK Turan Tovuz1.63
1X2
Araz FK
Draw
PFK Turan Tovuz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Araz FK
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
PFK Turan Tovuz
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Araz FK
2–2–2
PFK Turan Tovuz
(6 last)
- Araz FK0-3PFK Turan Tovuz
- Araz FK1-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-2Araz FK
- Araz FK1-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-0Araz FK
- Araz FK1-0PFK Turan Tovuz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Araz FK 1449 · PFK Turan Tovuz 1505
| Araz FK | Draw | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| Market | 17% | 26% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PFK Turan Tovuz (rating 1449 vs 1505).
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Araz FK | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Araz FK 2–2–2 PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 0-3 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 22/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 1-1 HT 1-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 24/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Araz FK |
| 18/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 1-1 HT 0-1 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 16/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Araz FK |
| 29/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | Araz FK | 1-0 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | Sabah | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Zira IK | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Shamakhi FK | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | FK Gabala | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Imisli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 9 | FK Kapaz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Safa Baku | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 11 | Araz FK | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| 12 | FK Sumqayit | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Araz FK | PFK Turan Tovuz |
|---|---|---|
| FK Qarabag | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Sabah | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Zira IK | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| FK Kapaz | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Sumqayit | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| FK Gabala | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Araz FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 23/08 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-4 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/08 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Araz FK vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PFK Turan Tovuz win (57%). Probabilities: Araz FK 17%, draw 27%, PFK Turan Tovuz 57%.
How many goals are expected in Araz FK vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Araz FK 0.78 · PFK Turan Tovuz 1.63), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Araz FK vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.