Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 11/09, 14:30

Prediction: Imisli vs Neftchi Baku

Team pages: Imisli · Neftchi Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Imisli0.86

Neftchi Baku1.92

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Imisli Draw Neftchi Baku

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Imisli 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDDLWL

Neftchi Baku 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Imisli 1–1–1 Neftchi Baku (3 last)

Neftchi Baku6-0Imisli
Neftchi Baku2-3Imisli
Imisli0-0Neftchi Baku

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Imisli 1489 · Neftchi Baku 1550

	Imisli	Draw	Neftchi Baku
Our model	15%	24%	61%
Market	17%	20%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1489 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Imisli	Neftchi Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.1	2.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.50

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 12:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 6.50 ★
X	3.75 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.54
2	1.67 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +14’	4.00	3.75	1.67
15:32 +7’	5.00▲	4.00▲	1.50▼
01:55 +7’	5.75▲	4.20▲	1.42▼
19:33 +5’	5.50▼	4.20	1.42
12:32 +5’	5.25▼	4.50▲	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +17’	6.51	4.10	1.44
07:31 +55’	6.29▼	4.08▼	1.45▲
10:26 +22’	6.14▼	4.03▼	1.47▲
12:37 +2’	6.20▲	4.03	1.47▼
05:22 +27’	6.23▲	4.05▲	1.46▼
09:58 +14’	6.36▲	4.39▲	1.41▼
12:33 +4’	6.50▲	4.54▲	1.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Imisli 1–1–1 Neftchi Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	6-0 HT 3-0	Imisli
23/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	2-3 HT 1-1	Imisli
22/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Imisli	0-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
2	Sabah	3	3	0	0	8	0	9
3	FK Qarabag	3	3	0	0	7	3	9
4	Zira IK	4	3	0	1	6	6	9
5	PFK Turan Tovuz	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
6	Shamakhi FK	4	1	2	1	5	4	5
7	FK Gabala	4	1	1	2	2	3	4
8	Imisli	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
9	FK Kapaz	3	1	0	2	2	6	3
10	Safa Baku	4	1	0	3	2	7	3
11	Araz FK	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
12	FK Sumqayit	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Imisli	Neftchi Baku
Safa Baku	1-0 W	4-1 W
Zira IK	1-3 L	0-1 L
Araz FK	0-0 D	5-0 W
FK Karvan	1-1 D	3-0 W
FK Qarabag	0-3 L	2-1 W
FK Sumqayit	0-2 L	3-1 W
FK Kapaz	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Imisli

WLWDLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	11	6	L
29/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
22/08	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
15/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
24/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	0	D
16/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-3	1	3	L
08/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
25/04	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/04	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W

Neftchi Baku

LWWWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
30/08	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	4-0	5-0	4	4	W
16/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
23/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
10/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
05/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
30/04	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	0	8	W
26/04	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-5	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Imisli vs Neftchi Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Baku win (62%). Probabilities: Imisli 16%, draw 22%, Neftchi Baku 62%.

How many goals are expected in Imisli vs Neftchi Baku?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Imisli 0.86 · Neftchi Baku 1.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Imisli vs Neftchi Baku?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.