Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 12/09, 17:45

Prediction: FK Sumqayit vs Shamakhi FK

Team pages: FK Sumqayit · Shamakhi FK

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
FK Sumqayit1.27
Shamakhi FK1.25
1X2
35% 30% 34%
FK Sumqayit Draw Shamakhi FK
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Sumqayit 3-0-7 (W-D-L)
LWWLWLLLLL
Shamakhi FK 3-2-5 (W-D-L)
LWLLWLLDDW
Head-to-head
FK Sumqayit 2–1–3 Shamakhi FK (6 last)
  • FK Sumqayit0-1Shamakhi FK
  • Shamakhi FK1-2FK Sumqayit
  • FK Sumqayit1-1Shamakhi FK
  • FK Sumqayit1-2Shamakhi FK
  • Shamakhi FK1-0FK Sumqayit
  • FK Sumqayit2-1Shamakhi FK
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sumqayit 1448 · Shamakhi FK 1487
FK SumqayitDrawShamakhi FK
Our model36%29%35%
Market35%31%34%
Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Shamakhi FK: 3-1-2.
  • Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

FK SumqayitShamakhi FK
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.71.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.80.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/30/40%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 4.21.9 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.3 / 0.24.8 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sumqayit 213 Shamakhi FK

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/03/26
Azerbaijan Premier League
FK Sumqayit0-1
HT 0-0
Shamakhi FK
30/11/25
Azerbaijan Premier League
Shamakhi FK1-2
HT 0-0
FK Sumqayit
29/08/25
Azerbaijan Premier League
FK Sumqayit1-1
HT 0-0
Shamakhi FK
12/04/25
Azerbaijan Premier League
FK Sumqayit1-2
HT 1-0
Shamakhi FK
09/02/25
Azerbaijan Premier League
Shamakhi FK1-0
HT 0-0
FK Sumqayit
24/11/24
Azerbaijan Premier League
FK Sumqayit2-1
HT 1-1
Shamakhi FK

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Neftchi Baku 5401 15512
2 Sabah 3300 809
3 FK Qarabag 3300 739
4 Zira IK 4301 669
5 PFK Turan Tovuz 4211 327
6 Shamakhi FK 4121 545
7 FK Gabala 4112 234
8 Imisli 5113 584
9 FK Kapaz 3102 263
10 Safa Baku 4103 273
11 Araz FK 4013 291
12 FK Sumqayit 3003 260

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentFK SumqayitShamakhi FK
PFK Turan Tovuz 1-2 L 0-0 D
FK Qarabag 0-1 L 1-3 L
Neftchi Baku 1-3 L 0-3 L
FK Kapaz 1-2 L 4-1 W
FK Gabala 1-0 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 4 L 1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sumqayit (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Sumqayit

LWWLWLLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
06/09 PFK Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-1 1-2 38 L
31/08 FK Qarabag
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-1 0-1 43 L
16/08 Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-2 1-3 36 L
22/05 FK Qarabag
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-2 3-4 64 L
17/05 Zira IK
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-1 1-2 23 L
09/05 Araz FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-0 2-1 62 W
02/05 FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-0 1-2 44 L
25/04 Imisli
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-0 2-0 45 W
19/04 FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-0 1-0 35 W
12/04 PFK Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-1 1-2 75 L

Shamakhi FK

LWLLWLLDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
04/09 FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
2-0 4-1 510 W
29/08 FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-0 0-0 33 D
23/08 PFK Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-0 0-0 13 D
17/08 FK Qarabag
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-1 1-3 44 L
21/05 FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
1-3 1-3 33 L
16/05 PFK Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
2-0 3-2 46 W
10/05 Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-1 0-3 15 L
03/05 Sabah
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-1 0-3 43 L
26/04 FK Kapaz
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-0 2-0 37 W
18/04 FK Karvan
Azerbaijan Premier League
0-1 0-1 54 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sumqayit vs Shamakhi FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sumqayit win (35%). Probabilities: FK Sumqayit 35%, draw 30%, Shamakhi FK 34%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sumqayit vs Shamakhi FK?

The model expects 2.52 goals (FK Sumqayit 1.27 · Shamakhi FK 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sumqayit vs Shamakhi FK?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.