Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 04/09, 18:15

Prediction: FK Kapaz vs Shamakhi FK

Team pages: FK Kapaz · Shamakhi FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

FK Kapaz1.24

Shamakhi FK1.02

1X2

40% 31% 29%

FK Kapaz Draw Shamakhi FK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Kapaz 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWLLLW

Shamakhi FK 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLLDD

Head-to-head

FK Kapaz 2–1–3 Shamakhi FK (6 last)

Shamakhi FK2-0FK Kapaz
FK Kapaz0-2Shamakhi FK
Shamakhi FK1-4FK Kapaz
Shamakhi FK2-1FK Kapaz
FK Kapaz1-1Shamakhi FK
Shamakhi FK0-1FK Kapaz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Kapaz 1455 · Shamakhi FK 1465

	FK Kapaz	Draw	Shamakhi FK
Our model	40%	31%	29%
Market	40%	31%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shamakhi FK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Kapaz	Shamakhi FK
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.9 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.90

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:10 +1’	2.25	2.90	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Kapaz 2–1–3 Shamakhi FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Kapaz
31/01/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Kapaz	0-2 HT 0-2	Shamakhi FK
17/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	1-4 HT 1-2	FK Kapaz
20/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Kapaz
17/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Kapaz	1-1 HT 0-0	Shamakhi FK
30/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Kapaz

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Zira IK	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
2	Neftchi Baku	3	2	0	1	8	2	6
3	FK Qarabag	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Sabah	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	PFK Turan Tovuz	3	1	1	1	1	1	4
6	Imisli	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
7	FK Kapaz	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
8	Safa Baku	3	1	0	2	1	3	3
9	Shamakhi FK	3	0	2	1	1	3	2
10	FK Gabala	3	0	1	2	0	2	1
11	Araz FK	3	0	1	2	0	6	1
12	FK Sumqayit	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Kapaz	Shamakhi FK
PFK Turan Tovuz	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sabah	0-2 L	0-3 L
Neftchi Baku	0-1 L	0-3 L
FK Karvan	1-4 L	0-1 L
FK Gabala	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kapaz (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Kapaz

LLLLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
15/08	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
23/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
15/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
08/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
26/04	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
19/04	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
10/04	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	1-4	8	4	L
05/04	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-2	10	3	L

Shamakhi FK

DLWLLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
23/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
17/08	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
21/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-3	3	3	L
16/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	6	W
10/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
03/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
26/04	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
18/04	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/04	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Kapaz vs Shamakhi FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Kapaz win (40%). Probabilities: FK Kapaz 40%, draw 31%, Shamakhi FK 29%.

How many goals are expected in FK Kapaz vs Shamakhi FK?

The model expects 2.25 goals (FK Kapaz 1.24 · Shamakhi FK 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Kapaz vs Shamakhi FK?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.