Football · Peru Liga 1 · 25/08, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · UTC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Alianza Atletico1.87

UTC Cajamarca0.96

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Alianza Atletico Draw UTC Cajamarca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLWDW

UTC Cajamarca 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDLDLL

Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 2–4–0 UTC Cajamarca (6 last)

UTC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico2-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca0-0Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico2-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1547 · UTC Cajamarca 1450

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	UTC Cajamarca
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	57%	25%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1547 vs 1450).
H2H favours Alianza Atletico: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	UTC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:03 +21’	1.60	3.60	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 2–4–0 UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
11/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	2-0 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca
08/03/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
01/08/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
16/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	2-0 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
14/07/23 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	CD Los Chankas	22	12	5	5	31	30	41
3	Universitario de Deportes	22	11	6	5	32	22	39
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	23	11	6	6	30	21	39
5	FBC Melgar	22	11	5	6	39	26	38
6	Cienciano	22	11	4	7	37	28	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
10	Comerciantes Unidos	23	7	8	8	30	30	29
11	Sport Boys	22	7	7	8	20	22	28
12	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
13	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	Juan Pablo II College	23	6	6	11	31	47	24
15	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
16	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
17	FC Cajamarca	23	5	6	12	33	42	21
18	UTC Cajamarca	23	4	8	11	25	38	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	UTC Cajamarca
AD Tarma	1-1 D	1-1 D
Alianza Lima	1-3 L	0-1 L
CD Los Chankas	3-1 W	2-2 D
Cusco FC	1-4 L	1-4 L
FC Cajamarca	1-1 D	1-2 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Atletico

LWDLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
11/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L

UTC Cajamarca

LLDDLDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
08/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (57%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 57%, draw 25%, UTC Cajamarca 18%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.87 · UTC Cajamarca 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.