Football · Peru Liga 1 · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano

Team pages: FC Cajamarca · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

FC Cajamarca1.52

Cienciano1.69

1X2

33% 27% 40%

FC Cajamarca Draw Cienciano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWLLW

Cienciano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLWLDL

Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 0–1 Cienciano (1 last)

Cienciano3-0FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1467 · Cienciano 1484

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.13 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.31
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +8’	2.80	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:22 +1’	3.13	3.31	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 0–0–1 Cienciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	3-0 HT 3-0	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	24	13	6	5	39	24	45
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
5	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	24	7	8	9	32	33	29
12	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
13	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
14	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
15	FC Cajamarca	24	6	6	12	36	44	24
16	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
17	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	24	4	8	12	27	42	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Cienciano
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	2-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	2-3 L	2-0 W
FBC Melgar	4-2 W	1-3 L
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	2-2 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	1-2 L	0-0 D
Juan Pablo II College	2-2 D	0-2 L
Alianza Lima	1-1 D	0-1 L
Alianza Atletico	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sporting Cristal	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cajamarca (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cajamarca

WDDDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
09/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	4	8	W
01/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	1	6	L
27/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
17/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	1	9	D
31/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
24/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
15/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	6	9	W

Cienciano

WLDWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-3	1-5	8	2	L
17/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
06/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
01/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
24/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
17/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
09/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cienciano win (40%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 33%, draw 27%, Cienciano 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano?

The model expects 3.2 goals (FC Cajamarca 1.52 · Cienciano 1.69), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.