Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 05/08, 00:00
Prediction: UCV vs Monagas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
UCV1.64
Monagas1.1
1X2
UCV
Draw
Monagas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
UCV
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Monagas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCV
2–3–1
Monagas
(6 last)
- Monagas0-3UCV
- Monagas2-0UCV
- UCV0-0Monagas
- Monagas1-3UCV
- UCV1-1Monagas
- Monagas1-1UCV
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCV 1441 · Monagas 1500
| UCV | Draw | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas (rating 1441 vs 1500).
- H2H favours UCV: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCV | Monagas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.1 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCV 2–3–1 Monagas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 0-3 HT 0-2 | UCV |
| 15/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 2-0 HT 2-0 | UCV |
| 04/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Monagas |
| 14/08/24 Venezuela Primera Division | Monagas | 1-3 HT 0-1 | UCV |
| 24/02/24 Venezuela Primera Division | UCV | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Monagas |
| 25/01/24 Club Friendly List | Monagas | 1-1 HT 1-0 | UCV |
Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trujillanos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Metropolitanos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Zamora | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Portuguesa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Academia Anzoategui FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Caracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Deportivo Tachira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Estudiantes Merida | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Academia Puerto Cabello | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 10 | Monagas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Carabobo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | UCV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | UCV | Monagas |
|---|---|---|
| Trujillanos | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Academia Puerto Cabello | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo La Guaira | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Monagas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCV
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 29/07 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 28/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 13/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Monagas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/06 | Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 04/04 | Zamora Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/03 | Caracas Venezuela Primera Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 19/03 | Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 09/03 | Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCV vs Monagas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a UCV win (49%). Probabilities: UCV 49%, draw 27%, Monagas 24%.
How many goals are expected in UCV vs Monagas?
The model expects 2.73 goals (UCV 1.64 · Monagas 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in UCV vs Monagas?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.